AI capex panic pushes down US Treasury yields, market lowers expectations of Fed rate hikes
The AI capex panic triggered a plunge in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 19 basis points in a single day, the largest one-day drop since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, and the market now sees a 24% probability that the Fed will not raise rates this year. After Meta gave guidance that capex would require "hundreds of billions of dollars," its stock fell nearly 7%, CoreWeave dropped 10%, and credit spreads across the computing infrastructure sector widened across the board. The article argues that the Fed faces a dilemma between fighting inflation and avoiding pricking the AI bubble, while international oil prices hitting their highest level since 2008 provide ammunition for the hawks.
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