IDC: US restrictions on foreign robots may reduce humanoid robot revenue by 58%
IDC estimates that, affected by US trade restrictions, by 2030 humanoid robot revenue in the US market will be 58% lower than the pre-restriction baseline, with losses exceeding US$6 billion, and the industry's annual growth rate dropping from 13% to about 9%. On July 28, the FCC added foreign-produced advanced robotic devices to the Covered List; new models cannot obtain import sales authorization, already authorized models can still be sold, and some software and firmware updates are permitted until January 1, 2029. IDC data shows that in the first half of 2026, global humanoid robot shipments were about 25,000 units, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for about 95%.
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The IDC model provides a quantified impact of the restrictions on humanoid robot revenue and, against the global shipment landscape, explains the supply divergence between China and the US.
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Trendingnow1Mark Zuckerberg says over 10 million people used Meta’s Muse—and demand was so high, he had to get Stripe to raise credit limits2‘I’m a millionaire and I proudly rent’: Mrs. Dow Jones says the American Dream needs a rethink3Zuckerberg told Meta directors he might leave California, where he could lose billions to a wealth tax. Meta answered with a new class of stock1Mark Zuckerberg says over 10 million people used Meta’s Muse—and demand was so high, he had to get Stripe to raise credit limits2‘I’m a millionaire and I proudly rent’: Mrs. Dow Jones says the American Dream needs a rethink3Zuckerberg told Meta directors he might leave California, where he could lose billions to a wealth tax. Meta answered with a new class of stockAsiaRoboticsAsiaWashington’s curbs on foreign robots could slash the U.S.’s humanoid robotics revenue by 58%, as companies lose access to ChinaBy Jay GanglaniJay GanglaniFellowBy Jay GanglaniJay GanglaniFellowOctober 23, 2026, 9:26 AM ETA Unitree G1 humanoid robot competes in robot combat at the 2026 World Physical AI Conference in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on October 22, 2026. Costfoto—NurPhoto via Getty ImagesAdd Fortune on Google for similar content.
Washington’s trade restrictions could leave the U.S.’s humanoid robotics market nearly 60% smaller than it would otherwise be by 2030, according to market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).
The projection points to a widening split in the global robotics industry: Chinese vendors now ship almost all of the world’s humanoid robots, while U.S. rules curb the American market from much of that supply.
On July 28, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) added “foreign-produced advanced robotic devices” to its Covered List, blocking new models from obtaining the authorization needed for U.S. imports and sales.
Previously authorized models can still be imported and sold, while some software and firmware updates are permitted through at least Jan. 1, 2029. Vendors can also seek conditional approval for new models, subject to a national-security review and commitments to shift production to the U.S.
U.S.-based robotics companies rely on China and other non-U.S. manufacturers for parts, including motors and batteries. Restrictions on those supply chains could raise costs and make it harder for American companies to scale production. U.S. startups have even resorted to smuggling robot parts in their luggage, The Information reported in early August.
“IDC’s trade policy model puts U.S. humanoid robot revenue 58% below the pre-restriction baseline by 2030,” IDC analysts wrote. The IDC’s model projects over $6 billion in lost revenue by the end of the decade, which in turn lowers the sector’s annual growth rate to about 9%, down from 13%.
Household cleaning robots, on the other hand, only shrinks by 18% by 2030, according to IDC.
IDC analysts argue that humanoid robots have shorter product life cycles than other types of robots, including household cleaning robots that have a deep-bench of already-certified models. In the case of humanoid robots, manufacturers are forced to update or replace these models more frequently.
Some companies are already getting a reprieve. On Oct. 23, the FCC granted a one-year waiver to Intel Corporation to keep updating and maintaining some of its robots. Intel had claimed that its automated guided vehicles were essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and that no domestic alternative existed.
The world buys what China builds
IDC projects that the global market for humanoid robots will keep growing. Vendors shipped an estimated 25,000 humanoid robots during the first six months of 2026, 26% more than the 18,500 shipped in all of 2025. IDC projects that more than 750,000 humanoid robots will be shipped by 2030.
Chinese vendors, such as Unitree and AGIBOT, account for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments, according to IDC. Chinese companies like Roborock and Dreame Technology also lead the global market for household cleaning robots. Competition from China helped send iRobot, the maker of the Roomba, into bankruptcy; the company was snapped up by its China-based supplier, Shenzhen Picea Robotics.
China and the U.S. made up 21% and 18% of global consumption respectively. Europe, meanwhile, buys more than double the U.S. share.
Brainstorm Tech International will convene CEOs and founders, technologists and investors, thinkers and doers to tackle the challenge of turning technological promise into lasting business and societal value. December 3 in Macau. Apply here.About the AuthorBy Jay GanglaniFellowSee full bio
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