Concerns over AI investment returns intensify; Nasdaq 100 market value may evaporate over $2 trillion in October

Losing a SpaceX? AI Investment Returns Spark Investor Concerns, Nasdaq May Shed $2 Trillion in Market Value This Month

IT Home Download the App for Exclusive Early Access

October 31, 2026, 15:33:43 From Shandong Updated October 31, 2026, 15:43:14

IT Home, October 31 — According to a Reuters report on the 30th, the Nasdaq 100 Index may shed more than $2 trillion in market value in October (IT Home note: approximately 13.34 trillion yuan at current exchange rates). As tech giants report earnings, investors' doubts about the returns on AI investment have deepened further: how long will it take to recoup the costs of the massive sums being spent on building AI infrastructure?

If losses reach this scale, the evaporated market value would be slightly higher than SpaceX's entire valuation. Affected by the cooling of the AI investment boom, the Nasdaq 100 Index has fallen more than 5.8% since the start of October. Meanwhile, tech giants such as Meta, Alphabet and Amazon are racing to expand AI infrastructure and further raising their spending forecasts.

Apple will report earnings next week, while AI industry leader Nvidia will not do so until mid-November. Alphabet's core search advertising business underperformed expectations, and its cash burn rate accelerated sharply, causing its stock price to post the largest single-day percentage decline in its history on Thursday.

Meta plans to raise funds through a record $97.5 billion (approximately 650.283 billion yuan at current exchange rates) financing, sparking investor concerns about equity dilution. As AI spending continues to climb, the market also worries that other tech giants will increasingly rely on capital market financing.

Microsoft and SpaceX are different: their results show that AI investment is beginning to pay off.

John Bilton, head of global strategy research in JPMorgan Asset Management's multi-asset solutions division, admitted frankly: "We may have overestimated the growth potential, but overall these companies have not seen negative growth. Our demand for data is endless, and it is still growing."

According to reports, Microsoft plans to issue about $25 billion (approximately 166.739 billion yuan at current exchange rates) in U.S. investment-grade bonds, its first such issuance in more than nine years. Over the past four years, tech giants such as Meta, Amazon and Alphabet have also raised hundreds of billions of dollars by issuing bonds, and investors are beginning to worry that these companies are overly reliant on bond market financing.

Morgan Stanley expects global AI infrastructure capital expenditure to exceed $1 trillion (approximately 6.67 trillion yuan at current exchange rates) next year.

The concerns are affecting not only the stock market but also spreading to the credit market. Investors are beginning to reflect potential risks in asset prices: if financing costs continue to rise and AI investment returns fall short of expectations, even companies previously considered highly resilient to risk could face financial pressure.

Since ChatGPT was launched in 2022, the revenue of the Magnificent Seven U.S. tech giants has remained strong, reflecting robust market demand. Even though it remains unclear when AI investment will generate returns, continued revenue growth may be the reason investors were initially willing to support massive spending.

As one of Amazon's main profit sources, its cloud computing business Amazon Web Services continues to accelerate growth. Meta's revenue growth exceeded market expectations, and it is also optimistic about future prospects. Microsoft also expects its cloud business to maintain strong growth in its latest earnings report.

JPMorgan expects global AI capital expenditure to reach $5.5 trillion (approximately 36.68 trillion yuan at current exchange rates) by 2030, with $900 billion (approximately 6 trillion yuan at current exchange rates) invested in 2026 alone.

JPMorgan analysts noted that the AI capital expenditure of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle and Microsoft this year is likely to be equivalent to the cumulative investment of the five companies since ChatGPT was launched in November 2022.

"Special Statement: The above content (including videos, pictures or audio, if any) is uploaded and published by users of 'Dafeng Hao,' a self-media platform under Phoenix Net. This platform only provides information storage space services.

Notice: The content above (including the videos, pictures and audios if any) is uploaded and posted by the user of Dafeng Hao, which is a social media platform and merely provides information storage space services."