Investors suggest Anthropic set IPO valuation at $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion

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Last week's sharp sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has prompted large investors planning to participate in Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) to reach a new consensus on the listing valuation of this AI giant—leaning toward a lower valuation.

According to people familiar with the matter, over the past few days institutional investors have indicated to the Claude developer and its advisory team that in the IPO later this month, its valuation should be set at around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion—far below the nearly $2 trillion level widely rumored in the market in recent months.

Investors cited multiple concerns, including heightened market turbulence and growing worries about excessive concentration of investment in the AI sector. In addition, political resistance to building data centers, and uncertainty over when hyperscalers such as Amazon and Meta will actually deliver AI profits, have also left investors uneasy.

Anthropic has not yet finalized its valuation target and is still considering the number of shares it plans to offer. According to prior media reports, as early as after its investor day last month, some investors suggested to the company that a valuation of around $1.5 trillion would be more reasonable.

That feedback also came before last week's technology stock rout. Dragged down by a string of weaker-than-expected earnings reports, technology giants including Intel and Alphabet both posted double-digit declines last week—Google parent Alphabet said growth in its Google search advertising business slowed due to the impact of "AI Mode" search queries; Amazon's revenue fell short of analysts' expectations; and Intel warned of a prolonged slump in personal computer sales.

Some investors said they believe Anthropic Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao will adopt conservative pricing, prioritizing ensuring that IPO investors get a sizable first-day "pop" in the stock price. They believe that even if Anthropic lists at a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, its market value could still climb to $2 trillion by the close on its first day. In June this year, Musk's SpaceX surged 30% on its first day of trading—though at that time the widespread market anxiety about AI had not yet spread.

Anthropic plans to launch its investor roadshow as early as next week and to officially list in the week before Thanksgiving as originally planned. When it launches the roadshow, the company will disclose the number of shares it plans to issue and the target price range, thereby revealing its target valuation.

Previously, SpaceX took an unconventional route, locking in a single offering price directly when the roadshow began. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic is expected to follow the more traditional approach and provide a guided price range.

In an updated filing on Monday, Anthropic said its revenue reached $17 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6 billion in the previous quarter. However, the company also noted that it recorded an operating loss of $567 million in the quarter, while in the immediately preceding quarter it achieved operating profit for the first time, in the amount of $974 million.

The company also provided more details on its massive computing spending, disclosing that it has entered into purchase commitments and lease agreements with total committed spending of about $895.4 billion. Of that, about $447.5 billion is expected to be incurred by the end of 2030; most of the remaining spending is expected to occur between 2031 and 2045.

The recent shift in market sentiment is causing caution to spread to many other companies preparing to go public. Many companies are watching how Anthropic's listing performs before deciding whether to take substantive steps. If Anthropic's listing goes smoothly, investors expect a wave of IPOs to hit the market early next year.

(Source: Cailian Press) Mid-article embedded advertisement