Microsoft Research publishes in Nature: Machine learning improves 2-6 week weather forecasts
Microsoft published new research in Nature showing that machine learning can improve weather forecasts for the next two to six weeks, a timescale that has historically been difficult to predict. Satya Nadella said the work could help respond to extreme weather, manage natural resources, and assist agricultural decision-making. He also proposed a broader idea: the future lies not only in more capable models, but also in building intelligent verification systems around models that learn where models systematically err, reason about causal relationships, and continuously calibrate predictions against reality.
Body
In @Nature this week, our new research shows how machine learning can improve weather forecasts two to six weeks out, a timeframe that's historically been very difficult to predict.
It's exciting to see the potential of this work to help us better prepare for extreme weather, manage natural resources, and make more informed decisions in agriculture.
There's a broader lesson here... the future may not just be about ever-more-capable models, but about building intelligent verification systems around them: systems that learn where models are systematically wrong, reason about cause and effect, and continuously calibrate predictions against reality.