Robot sector surges, mass production of humanoid robots accelerates driving supply chain layout | Equity Market Weekly Report

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AI summary: A-shares are expected to bottom out amid short-term volatility, with sentiment on the weak side; we recommend building a value base and maintaining balanced allocation while waiting for chips to be cleared out. Banks have solid earnings and rising dividends, offering both dividend-based defense and valuation-repair opportunities. Mass production of humanoid robots is accelerating, industrialization is landing, and the industry chain is ushering in good layout opportunities.

Last week, the three major A-share indices rebounded from lows, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.18%. By sector, decliners outnumbered gainers, with computers, machinery and equipment, and automobiles leading gains; coal, real estate, telecommunications, and power equipment among the biggest decliners.

1. Sentiment is sluggish; stay light and wait

East Money Securities: A rebound is foreseeable

Recently the A-share market has continued to fluctuate and adjust, with market risk appetite persistently declining, and some investors tend to compare the current trend with the market downturn after the 2021 new-energy crowding-out collapse. We believe that A-shares' overall third-quarter and full-year profit growth, together with ETF funding support, will still provide support for A-shares. In terms of allocation, we favor the approach of "value as the base, selectively choosing growth," balancing prosperity win rates with odds factors such as low levels and low crowding.

CICC: Helping restore market confidence

From a capital market perspective, we believe this forum has released positive signals around improving the monetary policy framework, capital market reform, financial market stability, and expanding opening-up. Against the backdrop of recently cautious investor sentiment and insufficient incremental capital, the relevant measures are expected to enhance market liquidity, stabilize market expectations, and boost investor confidence.

China Securities: Sentiment is sluggish; stay light and wait

Market sentiment is sluggish; in the short term, beware of passive deleveraging and wait for a rebound after the clearing-out. At the allocation level, short-term allocation should use certain dividends to lock in a base position, use a light-chip structure to wait for style rebalancing, and use real assets to hedge both inflation and geopolitical risks. Sectors to focus on: banks, non-bank financials, utilities, coal, oil, oil shipping, basic chemicals, hog farming, the AI industry chain, etc.

China Merchants Securities: The way of offense and defense under high volatility

Recently, the narratives of high oil prices, high inflation, and slowing AI growth have jointly weighed on stock market performance. However, considering recent market performance and the stabilization of the market through increased ETF volume, the short term may be dominated by bottoming out amid volatility and structural opportunities, and we recommend maintaining a balanced allocation. The core approach for industry allocation over the next 3-6 months is: in the high-interest-rate phase, focus on advantages on the numerator side, and then look at whether the chip structure is healthy; when interest rates turn down, prioritize the breadth of technology; and wait for subsequent domestic policy follow-through before further spreading into domestic demand.

2. [Multiple bank stocks hit record highs]

East Money Securities: Focus on the two main lines of improving prosperity and steady dividends

In 1H26, listed banks' revenue and net profit attributable to parent grew 7.4% and 3.0% year on year, with growth rates basically stable compared with 1Q26. Among them, large state-owned banks saw marginal improvement in both revenue and profit, with revenue growth leading the industry. Joint-stock banks have higher dividend yields, and large banks' interim dividends have generally increased. On prosperity, focus on Bank of Suzhou, Bank of Ningbo, Qilu Bank, and Bank of Qingdao, where revenue and profit growth and asset quality support each other. On dividends, focus on the increase in large banks' dividend payout ratios, as well as banks such as Industrial Bank, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Nanjing, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, whose dividend yields and profitability are relatively well matched, and use PB-ROE to measure valuation reasonableness.

Huachuang Securities: Value allocation opportunities in the banking sector

The core logic of medium- and long-term capital entering the market and public fund reform remains unchanged; value allocation opportunities in the banking sector, as banks remain significantly underweight. 1) The characteristics of high dividends and low valuations remain the underlying color of bank stocks; especially against the backdrop of falling risk-free rates, banks' bond-like attributes will continue to attract steady capital. 2) As interest margins stabilize, regional credit demand recovers, and non-interest income grows, some high-quality banks will show strong earnings elasticity, and their valuations are expected to switch from PB logic to PE logic.

CITIC Securities: The banking sector will still play out in the direction of rising valuations

From an investment perspective, against the backdrop of still-large market volatility, banks' earnings stability is expected to further consolidate their stable-return attributes. From a medium-term perspective, the banking sector is entering the tail range of the risk cycle, and the first derivative of ROE has already improved. It is expected that the absolute ROE of the industry will stabilize this year and next, in the 8-9% range, helping to lift the sector's valuation. The sector is expected to be re-rated from a "high-dividend defensive asset" to a "high-certainty equity asset," and the banking sector will still play out in the direction of rising valuations.

Guotai Haitong Securities: Stability and improvement show resilience

It is estimated that the sample banks' revenue and net profit attributable to parent growth in 26Q3 (cumulative basis, same below) will be 9.1% and 5.3%, respectively, +1.2pc and +1.2pc compared with 26H1 growth, with revenue growth expected to strengthen further and profit growth also showing a trend of steady improvement. Focus on the following directions: 1) recommend banks with both strong performance and dividend attributes; 2) if market style is expected to balance, the sector has allocation opportunities, and recommend large state-owned banks.

3. [The robotics sector remains active]

Hualong Securities: Maintain "recommended" rating on the humanoid robot industry

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Huajin Securities: The robot industry chain is expected to regain attention

We believe that as the industrial application of embodied intelligent robots gradually lands and Tesla Optimus V3 mass production accelerates, the robot industry chain is expected to regain attention. Because many components of humanoid robots share the same technical origin as the automotive industry, we recommend focusing on OEMs that possess both brain and hardware iteration capabilities, companies with industrialization capabilities for humanoid robot components, and, for power and energy parts, component suppliers.

Founder Securities: Humanoid robots accelerate production line implementation

The humanoid robot industry is gradually shifting from technology demonstrations and prototype iteration to production line validation, supply chain stocking, and manufacturing capacity ramp-up. Recently, disclosures related to Tesla's robot supply chain show that the Optimus design scheme is becoming finalized and mass production expectations are heating up; domestic auto parts production lines have also seen cases of routine humanoid robot operations, further advancing the industrialization process. Auto parts companies with precision manufacturing, large-scale production, and collaborative customer development capabilities are expected to extend their existing technological accumulation into the robot industry chain. Middle of the body: embedded advertisement