Humanoid robot secondary shares dumped at a 50% discount, the venture capital circle begins to stampede

A few days ago, I still thought the humanoid robot bubble was too big; just a few days later, how is it that I feel this track is starting to see a stampede again.

One key signal is: old shares of some star companies are starting to be dumped at a 50% discount.

I won't name specific names. At least two sources are hinting: a certain domestic unicorn doing world models is urgently selling old shares. Founded only a few years ago, it raised several billion yuan as recently as the first half of this year, with a valuation of tens of billions, and now it is already dumping old shares at a 50-60% discount.

This is a systematic revaluation, showing that investors have begun to believe: humanoid robot companies are not worth that much anymore.

Let's look at the phenomena first.

On October 16, Rongzhong Finance reported that an investor invested in an embodied intelligence startup at the beginning of the year at a post-money valuation of 3 billion yuan. By October, the company's external valuation had risen to 22 billion yuan.

But the investor wanted to transfer old shares at a valuation of 12 billion yuan, a discount of about 45%, and still could not find a buyer.

Note that this is a quote, not an actual transaction. The 22 billion yuan is also not a price verified by the public market.

As far as I understand, this transaction is still ongoing. What does that mean? 22 billion is the peak valuation, but 12 billion is not the bottom valuation. It is like a stock that has not yet hit bottom.

This shows that capital has already begun to stampede and panic. Why? Think about it: when do institutions generally sell old shares? There are only a few situations.

1. The fund is about to expire, a routine practice.

Among the projects invested in, those already listed exit through IPO; for those not listed, either the company buys back the old shares, or they are transferred to external investors.

According to a statement released by Galaxea on March 29, 2025: November 2023: GSR Ventures participated in Galaxea's angel round financing. May 2024: GSR Ventures raised a request to Galaxea to exit its equity investment.

September 2024: Galaxea assisted GSR Ventures in completing the exit.

3. Not optimistic about the project in either the short or long term, so they want to exit quickly.

This exposes the need too much. You are an investor in the project, and you are so eager to exit; can the person taking over not sense your intention, and still dare to take the old shares you don't want?

So the current stampede in humanoid robots is understandable; and old shares not being sellable for a while is even more understandable.

Venture capital has always had the convention: once you step one leg in, it is hard to get out.

When the wolf hasn't come, you think wolf meat tastes good; when the wolf comes, you know to run. Where in the world is there such a perfect thing.

Now there are several signals that I think the whole industry has seen.

1. The original exit logic may no longer work.

On September 21, according to foreign media reports, the listing plans of some Chinese humanoid robot companies are slowing down.

People familiar with the matter said regulators have begun to pay more attention to corporate valuation and revenue quality, and the private market valuations of some projects have already been cut by 30% to 50%.

2. The secondary market has already given a warning once.

For example, Unitree Technology.

On its first day of listing, Unitree's stock price rose by more than five times at one point, then fell about 55% from its high.

Of course, a temporary stock price fluctuation cannot be directly equated with a decline in primary market valuation.

But this case at least reminds us: even if a company successfully goes public, the market will not forever pay for its future imagination.

My view: everyone should not rush to stampede, and should not believe every rumor they hear.

Don't start madly investing in robots just after the 2025 Spring Festival Gala; don't madly invest in whatever Musk does.

And don't start collectively belittling the industry just because Unitree's stock price slips; and even more, don't madly sell old shares as soon as there is a change in IPO policy.

What is the difference between this and children playing house? Children have no opinions of their own; whatever adults say is what it is, and whatever adults say is good is good.

Our venture capital circle has already had more than 20 years of development history, has seen the internet bubble, seen the mobile internet wave, and also seen the rises and falls of new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.

By rights, we should be more mature than 20 years ago, with stronger independent judgment.

But why is it that today, when facing an emerging industry, we still easily fall into the same cycle?

When the trend comes, everyone scrambles; when valuations rise, everyone feels they judged correctly; once negative signals appear, they wish everyone would turn around together.

If an institution's investment judgment mainly depends on the Spring Festival Gala, Musk, IPO policy, and the actions of other institutions, then is it really doing investment, or is it chasing sentiment? What is the difference between this and retail investors chasing rises and selling on falls?

Does that mean the threshold for equity investment is too low now, and those who are not professionally qualified should be screened out?

There will always be trends; what is truly scarce is the judgment not to be swept along by them.

Therefore, I do not want to see the humanoid robot track go from frenzied pursuit to collective bearishness.

A mature venture capital industry is not one where everyone is always bullish, but one where bullish views are grounded, bearish views are evidenced, buying has logic, and exiting has discipline.

If, after more than 20 years of development, we can still only be collectively frenzied when a trend arrives and collectively panic when the wind changes, then what needs reflection is not just this round of humanoid robot bubble.

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article comes from the WeChat public account "Pencil News" (ID: pencilnews), author: Pencil News, published by 36Kr with authorization.