Epoch AI: AI chip compute grows 3.4× per year
Rohan Paul, citing Epoch AI data, points out that the total compute of all AI chips in use grows 3.4× per year; but if the compute of newly purchased chips each year grows only 2.5×, this total will eventually also slow to about 2.5×. The original Epoch AI post states that the compute of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024, down from roughly 6× in 2023 driven by Nvidia H100.
View original postThe computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU. Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations. See our website for more details on the analysis: https://t.co/rcxMLsJpcS This is from our AI chip sales dataset, which uses financial reports, company disclosures, and more to estimate compute, power usage, and spending for a wide variety of chips: https://t.co/t5f7LRClAI
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The computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU. Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations. See our website for more details on the analysis: https://t.co/rcxMLsJpcS This is from our AI chip sales dataset, which uses financial reports, company disclosures, and more to estimate compute, power usage, and spending for a wide variety of chips: https://t.co/t5f7LRClAI
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the total computing power of all AI chips in use is growing 3.4x a year. per Epoch AI
but if each year’s new chip purchases grow only 2.5x, that total will eventually slow to about 2.5x as well. https://t.co/FEAMWLc0LZ