Sierra Club Report: US AI Data Center Expansion May Offset 15 Years of Emissions Reductions in the Power Sector

According to a report obtained by Bloomberg, the environmental organization Sierra Club estimates that planned AI data centers in the United States will generate approximately 618 million tons of additional carbon dioxide emissions between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to a 42% increase in emissions related to the power sector. If the forecast comes true, the 15 years of greenhouse gas emission reductions achieved by the U.S. power sector through reducing coal use, improving energy efficiency, and expanding renewable energy deployment could be largely offset.

The report points out that by 2030, total emissions from the U.S. power sector could rise to 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide as a result. This latest forecast is 2 to 4 times higher than the organization's estimate a year and a half ago, reflecting that the pace of AI infrastructure expansion far exceeds previous expectations.

Faced with insufficient capacity to connect to the traditional power grid, many data center operators are trying to build independent power supply facilities to avoid long interconnection waiting times. Although this approach can ease pressure on the residential grid and reduce the impact on regional electricity prices, these off-grid energy systems may bring more than 460 million tons of additional carbon emissions, roughly equivalent to Mexico's total annual national carbon emissions.

However, there are still huge differences among institutions in their judgments of future emission trends. The gap between the highest and lowest current forecasts even exceeds the combined electricity demand of California and Florida. Some research institutions believe that large-scale deployment of renewable energy will significantly alleviate the problem. For example, Rhodium Group forecasts that even under the most pessimistic emissions scenario, the U.S. power sector's emissions level in 2040 will still be 24% lower than in 2025.

In addition, it is impossible to determine whether all currently announced AI data center projects will ultimately be built. The climate research organization Sightline Climate previously estimated that about one-third to one-half of U.S. data center projects originally scheduled to come online this year may face delays or cancellation.

Energy supply issues have already begun to affect the development of the AI industry. Because power infrastructure construction cannot keep up with demand growth, GPU deployment at some data centers has slowed. Some high-performance computing equipment purchased by companies has even had to sit idle, waiting for data centers that can provide enough power to begin operation.

The report also mentions that Amazon's planned data center project in Texas will be powered by a natural gas power plant with an installed capacity of 7.65 gigawatts. According to approved documents, the plant can emit up to 33 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, and if it reaches this level, it may become one of the largest single sources of carbon emissions in the United States.

In recent years, data centers have attracted increasing attention due to surging electricity demand, massive water consumption, and pressure on community infrastructure. As the scale of AI models continues to expand, how to strike a balance between ensuring computing power growth and achieving emission reduction targets is becoming an important challenge facing the technology industry, energy companies, and regulators alike.