Anthropic Co-founder Says the Singularity Has Begun, Entry-Level Tech Hiring Cut from 27% to 9%

I feel that this speech by Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark at the IMF annual meeting is probably the most thought-provoking yet most easily underestimated signal in the tech world this year. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark stood on the podium and said something very direct to the central bank governors and finance ministers of the world in the audience: this year we have already obtained conclusive evidence that the singularity has begun. The most striking part is actually the interpretation the blogger added in the tweet: you can completely disbelieve the concept of the singularity, but Anthropic is already reallocating all of its capital and positions on the premise that the singularity has arrived. What is most shocking about these remarks is actually the occasion on which they were made. For more than sixty years, the speakers invited to this lecture have been almost exclusively central bank governors, senior finance officials, and top economists from various countries. When the founder of an AI lab is invited onto this stage and lays the curve of technological self-evolution directly on the table of the world's financial leaders, it shows that AI has long since left the realm of geek discussion and become an imminent macroeconomic and national security issue. Many people have a science-fiction misunderstanding of the singularity, thinking it means machines suddenly become self-aware. But from the perspective of these frontline researchers, the physical definition of the singularity is extremely simple and cruel: when AI begins to assist around the clock and even lead basic scientific research, designing the next generation of intelligent systems at several times the speed of humans, technological progress begins to self-accelerate, so fast that all of humanity's existing forecasting models and organizational structures become instantly invalid. Looking at the company's recent series of moves together, the logic is actually frighteningly cold. On one hand, they cut the proportion of entry-level tech hiring from 27% to 9% in internal reports; on the other hand, they set aside company equity to establish a fund to address future unemployment shocks; and on yet another front, the founder directly issued a warning to central banks around the world. All these actions tell you the same fact: they are not just talking big; they truly believe the inflection point has been crossed, and they are using real money to hedge against the coming upheaval. For everyone caught up in this, arguing about whether the singularity really exists is actually meaningless. When resources, capital, and the brightest minds are all reconstructing reality according to this premise, the biggest risk is never that you fail to learn some specific skill, but that the skilled craft you are proud of depreciates too quickly in the face of this self-accelerating flywheel. What do you all think is the underlying moat that we ordinary people should weld onto ourselves most firmly in this cycle of technological self-evolution? I think the courage to quickly set a direction amid massive uncertainty and machine-generated information, to dare to make decisions, and to take responsibility for the results is the only asset I am now convinced will not become obsolete. https://t.co/KhhXVScfi2

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我感觉Anthropic 联合创始人 Jack Clark 这段在国际货币基金组织年会上的发言，大概是今年科技界发生的最耐人寻味、但也最容易被低估的一个信号了， Anthropic 联合创始人 Jack Clark 站在讲台上，对着台下全世界的央行行长和财政部长说了一句非常直接的一句话：今年我们已经拿到了确凿证据，奇点已经开始了。 最绝的其实是博主在推文里补的那句解读：
你可以完全不相信奇点这个概念，但 Anthropic 已经在按奇点已经降临这个前提，在重新配置他们所有的资金和岗位了。 这番话最震撼的地方其实在于它发生的场合，
这个讲座六十多年来请的几乎全都是各国的央行行长、财政高官和顶级经济学家， 当一家 AI 实验室的创始人被请到这个舞台上，把技术自我进化的曲线直接摊在全球金融掌门人的桌面上时，说明 AI 早就已经脱离了极客讨论的范畴，变成了一项迫在眉睫的宏观经济与国家安全议题。 很多人对奇点有一种科幻式的误解，以为它是机器突然有了自我意识，但在他们这群一线研发者的视角里，奇点的物理定义极其简单且残酷：
当 AI 开始全天候协助甚至主导基础科学研究、用几倍于人类的速度去设计下一代智能系统时，技术的进步开始自我加速，快到人类原有的所有预测模型和组织架构全部当场失效。 把这家公司最近的一系列动作串起来看，逻辑其实冷酷得吓人。 
他们一边在内部报告里把初级技术招聘的比例从 27% 砍到了 9%，一边拿出公司股权去设立基金应对未来的失业冲击，另一边创始人直接向全球央行发出预警；所有这些动作都在告诉你同一个事实：他们不是在打嘴炮，他们是真的相信拐点已经越过，并在用真金白银对冲接下来的巨变。 对于身处其中的每一个人来说，去争辩奇点到底存不存在其实毫无意义。 
当资源、资本和最聪明的头脑都在按照这个前提重构现实时，最大的风险从来不是你学不会某项具体技能，而是你引以为傲的熟练手艺，在这个自我加速的飞轮面前贬值得太快。 大家觉得在技术自我进化的这个周期里，我们普通人最应该焊死在身上的底层护城河到底是什么？ 我觉得在海量不确定性和机器生成的信息里快速定方向、敢拍板并为结果负责的魄力，是我现在唯一坚信不会过时的资产。 https://t.co/KhhXVScfi2