Next Week's Major Events: Fed Decision and Tech Giants' Earnings Arrive Together—Can AI Trades Save Themselves?

A look at the major financial events in the week of October 26 - November 1, all times below are Beijing time:

The first main thread is "Super Central Bank Week." The Federal Reserve will announce its decision in the early hours of October 29; 94% of economists expect it to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4%, but the wording at Warsh's press conference will be key—Bloomberg notes that markets will be watching closely for clues about a December rate hike, and a hawkish signal could directly push up US Treasury yields and weigh on risk assets. The Bank of Japan makes its move the same week, with rates expected to stay unchanged at 1.25%, but if Kazuo Ueda signals a hawkish stance, it will trigger a yen rebound and hit global carry trades; the ECB is also expected to hold steady, with Lagarde guiding the path for December.

Recently, US Treasuries have swung sharply, with the 10-year yield briefly approaching 5.3% before pulling back; France's political deadlock and high energy prices are intertwined, making the rate path and tech stock valuations core variables in global asset pricing.

Second is "Super Earnings Week." After this week's sharp selloff in US AI trades, earnings from the giants will be a key test: Google, Microsoft, Intel and Amazon lead the reporting slate, joined by Korean memory duo Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and Japan's Kioxia, bringing the earnings validation for the AI hardware chain to a climax; on the A-share side, leaders such as Unitree Robotics, Kweichow Moutai and the optical module "Yi Zhong Tian" trio (Zhongji Innolight, T&S Communications, Eoptolink) take the stage in a concentrated fashion before the quarterly report deadline, with the prosperity validation for baijiu and semiconductors equally key. The market will test whether earnings can reverse the AI trade's slump and validate the cyclical upswing.

Third is Israel's election and the Middle East situation. Israel's election is a key variable in the Middle East; the US and Israel are reported to be planning a post-election strike on Iran, Hormuz shipping has plunged, and Brent crude briefly broke $110—the election outcome will directly affect the direction of regional conflict and the oil price center. Brazil's presidential runoff takes place at the same time; as Latin America's largest economy, its policy path will not only sway emerging-market risk appetite but also affect commodities and exchange rates.

Finally, data and the AI industry main thread. Anthropic may publicly file its prospectus, potentially the year's largest IPO; Oracle's AI World conference and Hon Hai Tech Day and other tech conferences take place in succession, with AI computing power in focus. Apple's product launch and the China launch of Apple Intelligence, as well as Tencent's Digital Ecosystem Summit, are also on the list. On the data front, China releases official manufacturing PMI and September industrial enterprise profits, while the US simultaneously releases the preliminary third-quarter GDP reading and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge PCE—the two sets of data will test the quality of the "soft landing."

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Economic Indicators

Fed decision, Warsh speech and US economic data

The Fed will announce its decision in the early hours of October 29; according to reports, 94% of economists expect rates to stay unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, and CME puts the probability of holding steady at about 84%; Warsh's press conference will focus on the statement's wording and the December path, and Bloomberg notes that markets will be watching closely for clues about a December rate hike, with a hawkish signal potentially pushing up US Treasury yields.

On October 29, the preliminary third-quarter US real GDP reading and the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will also be released. If GDP growth beats expectations, it could weaken rate-cut bets, but the market is more focused on the internals—consumer resilience and corporate investment trends. If PCE beats expectations, it could reinforce "higher for longer" tightening expectations and directly weigh on risk asset valuations.

Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and others announce rate decisions

The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on October 30; Bloomberg expects rates to stay unchanged at 1.25% but signals of policy normalization to be released; Bloomberg expects another 25bp hike in December to a terminal rate of 2%. With the yen weak and carry trades massive, its messaging will affect global capital flows.

The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on October 29; according to a Reuters survey, the market expects the main refinancing rate to stay unchanged at 2.65%; Lagarde's press conference will guide the December path. The Bank of Canada meets on October 28; a Bloomberg survey expects a 25bp hike to 3.00%; Governor Macklem stresses that the fight against inflation is not over. As a member of the global super central bank week, its tightening spillover is worth watching. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and others will also announce rate decisions. In addition, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will release October Tokyo CPI on October 30; as the last key inflation reading before the BOJ decision, if it beats expectations it will reinforce the BOJ policy normalization narrative and roil carry trades.

China manufacturing PMI and year-on-year industrial enterprise profits

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the October official manufacturing PMI on October 31, previous value 50.1. As the first monthly reading of economic activity, the market is watching whether it can stay above the boom-or-bust line; previously, September industrial enterprise profits rose 4.2% year on year, and post-National Day production resumption and order recovery are short-term focal points.

Earnings

US earnings: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, SanDisk, etc.; Japan and Korea: Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia

English text is being prepared.

A-share earnings: Zhongji Innolight, T&S Communications, Eoptolink, Unitree Robotics, Kweichow Moutai

A-share third-quarter reports are nearing the end of their disclosure period, with Zhongji Innolight, T&S Communications, Eoptolink, Unitree Robotics, Kweichow Moutai and others appearing in quick succession. As leaders in optical modules (CPO), the results of Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink and T&S Communications and the pace of 1.6T volume ramp-up are core validations for the AI computing chain; Unitree Robotics, as a rising star in robotics, is also drawing attention with its first public financial report; Moutai, meanwhile, bears on consumer resilience.

The third-quarter reports may be the biggest source of uncertainty in the last one to two weeks of October, and US tech giants such as Microsoft will also disclose their latest earnings.

Hong Kong stock earnings: BYD, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, etc.

The Hong Kong earnings season is advancing in parallel, with BYD, PetroChina/Sinopec/CNOOC and leading mainland banks (Bank of China/China Construction Bank/Agricultural Bank of China/Postal Savings Bank of China) successively reporting; amid continued southbound capital inflows and expectations that interest rates have peaked, their guidance affects the Hong Kong high-dividend and energy mainlines.

Financial events

Israeli election

According to Xinhua News Agency, Israel plans to hold legislative elections before October 27, 2026, to elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset. With Israel still under pressure from multi-front fighting, US-Israel relations at a low point due to disagreements over the Iran issue, and the prime minister himself entangled in legal problems, whether incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu can continue in power has become the main suspense of this election. On the 14th local time, a CCTV News reporter learned that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that day that before the upcoming Israeli parliamentary election, he opposed the United States or Israel launching a military strike on Iran in the coming days, and said that taking such action at this stage is "not convenient."

Brazil to hold second round of presidential election, results may emerge

On October 25, Brazil will hold the second round of its presidential election. According to Xinhua News Agency, in the first round of voting held on October 4, because no candidate received more than 50% of valid votes, the top two vote-getters advanced to the second round. Preliminary vote counts are expected to be revealed within hours after the second round ends (local evening/early morning Beijing time the next day). Experts believe this Brazilian presidential election will determine Brazil's direction for the next four years and may affect the political landscape of Latin America.

The 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session convenes

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss documents to be submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee for deliberation. The meeting decided that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing from October 26 to 29.

The plenary session itself will have limited direct impact on A-shares, and the party-building agenda does not directly involve incremental economic policy, but attention should be paid to whether the communique releases marginal signals on the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, expanding domestic demand or industrial policy.

Anthropic plans to make its prospectus public as early as late October

According to Reuters citing people familiar with the matter, Anthropic plans to make its prospectus public as early as late October and complete its IPO in mid-November, and is expected to launch a roadshow for institutional investors in the week of November 9. The people familiar with the matter also cautioned that the above plans and timing may still change.

Apple's second October event: first touchscreen MacBook and new iPad mini to appear together

Apple plans to hold its second event of the month on October 29, launching its first touchscreen MacBook Pro (equipped with an OLED screen and "Dynamic Island" interface), a new iPad mini (also upgraded to OLED with an adjusted camera position), and a 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac powered by the M6 chip. These are the first major products led by new CEO John Ternus since taking office, and the event is positioned for creative professionals.

At the end of October, Apple Intelligence for the China market launches a beta version (integrated with Alibaba Qwen)

According to reports, Apple Intelligence for the China market has launched a beta version, integrated with Alibaba Qwen and excluding Siri AI. Apple's path to landing AI in China is taking shape, which is of substantive significance to the domestic AI application distribution landscape and the commercialization of Alibaba's models.

Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit (Shenzhen)

The 2026 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Summit will be held on October 29 at the Shenzhen World Exhibition & Convention Center, under the theme "Collective Intelligence, Digital Flywheel: Unleashing All-Scenario Productivity." It will release 100+ new products and capabilities for Agent scenarios, showcase more than 500 Agent practice cases, and feature 1 main summit, 1 going-global summit and 40+ themed sessions.

German President Steinmeier visits China (27th to 31st)

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced that German President Steinmeier will pay a state visit to China from October 27 to 31.

US Secretary of State chairs two-day G20 foreign ministers' meeting

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio chairs a two-day G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta. It runs from October 30 to 31.

EU-Canada summit

The EU-Canada summit will be held on October 29. According to the EU Council's schedule, the two sides will focus on trade and investment, security and defense, and key supply chain cooperation; against the backdrop of US-Canada tariff friction and the reshaping of transatlantic relations, the summit's outcomes may affect related industries and exchange rate expectations.

The Shanghai Satellite Internet Industry Innovation and Development Action Plan (2027-2030) is about to be released

From October 27 to 29, the 2026 Satellite Internet Industry Ecosystem Conference will be held in Shanghai. The main forum of the conference will release the Shanghai Satellite Internet Industry Innovation and Development Action Plan (2027-2030), clarifying development goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan period in areas such as constellation networking, network carrying capacity, core industry scale and the creation of benchmark application scenarios. In addition, a construction plan for the "6G+AI+satellite internet+space-based computing" integrated air-space-ground industrial cluster will be released, and events such as the trial operation launch of the Yangtze River Delta satellite internet supply and demand platform will be held.

Dongshan Precision's Hong Kong IPO, shares expected to begin trading

Dongshan Precision has applied to issue 113.8 million shares through a Hong Kong IPO. The top of the price guidance range is HK$93.80 per share. The shares are expected to begin trading on October 28.

Oracle AI World (10/25-28) and GitHub Universe (10/28-29) focus on Agents and AI programming; the Shenzhen ROBOTECH conference and the ITWA optical module mass production exhibition (10/27-29, 1.6T/3.2T) are bellwethers for AI computing; Hon Hai Tech Day (10/30-31) will disclose AI servers.

Apple holds a "Pro and Tell" event on the 29th to launch new Macs again; on the 31st, Apple Intelligence for the China market integrates Alibaba Qwen; Anthropic plans to submit its IPO S-1 on the 26th, the largest AI IPO of the year.

Early reminder of major events the week after next (11/2-11/8)

November 2-5: 2026 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit (Wuzhen, Zhejiang) — theme "Open Source, Open Collaboration, Shared Benefits," focusing on the open-source development of artificial intelligence (CCTV).

November 3 (Tuesday): US midterm elections — determining control of both chambers of Congress; the pre-election plan by the US and Israel to strike Iran militarily has already pushed up geopolitical risk premiums.

November 5-10: The 9th China International Import Expo (Shanghai) — a national-level platform for opening up, to observe policy direction on expanding imports and foreign investment access.

November 5 (Thursday): French unions call for a nationwide strike — combined with France's political deadlock (the €54 billion austerity plan is stalled, public debt reaches 113% of GDP), this may widen the French-German bond spread and weigh on the euro.

The Shanghai Import Expo and Hongqiao Forum open on November 5; the World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit opens on November 2. Risk disclosure and disclaimer

Markets carry risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at the user's own risk.