Because I Am Not Certain: An Economist Pins His Hopes on AI

**Key Points**

**1. Beijing's main urban area has "frozen in time," and a new microcosm of the consumer market has emerged**

A high-end Japanese restaurant has been replaced by a McDonald's whose facade features a giant G-Dragon portrait, with young men and women making special trips to take photos there, showing that consumption is no longer merely utilitarian but now layers emotional value and pop-culture elements on top.

**2. After CreditEase's notification, media organizations refused to discuss it further**

On the day of recording, it happened to coincide with a police notification regarding the founder of CreditEase, but the other party asked that the matter not be mentioned, citing "official information as the standard"; the author believes that the lack of public discussion of investment traps makes it harder for ordinary people to avoid them in advance.

**3. A young economist pins all hope on AI**

**4. Campuses and workplaces have widely embraced AI, raising concerns about thought**

**5. No one can be sure whether the choices of the AI era are correct**

Through the dying words of the robot Giskard in *Foundation*—"Because I am not certain"—the author highlights deep doubts about an AI-driven future. 2026-10-17 18:20 Because I am not certain — Zhu Lou Yan Bin Ke — Quick Overview

I didn't expect that my friends would be even more anxious than I was, sending messages one after another to apologize to Beijing on my behalf. They said that during the National Day holiday just a couple of days earlier, it was still golden autumn with clear skies, and they hadn't expected that once you came back it would turn out like this.

How is that comforting me? To me it looks more like blaming me.

But the following days were a bit better. I rode my bike from Tuanjiehu to Sanyuanqiao, and deliberately took a detour around the embassy district, and got a bit of that autumn-viewing feeling.

In recent years, when I return to Beijing I often stay in this area, so I'm already fairly familiar with it—to be honest, I feel that the entire main urban area of Beijing seems to have "frozen in time" over these years. Not only has there been no major change, but it seems even new stores are rarely seen—only the rather upscale Japanese yakiniku place at the entrance of the hotel where I usually stay has closed down, replaced by a big McDonald's.

Of course, if it had merely been replaced by a McDonald's, I could probably attribute it to consumption downgrading. However, the facade of this McDonald's is a G-Dragon portrait two stories high, and young men and women stream endlessly to the entrance to take photos and check in, which seems to add another layer of meaning beyond the traditional sense of consumption downgrading.

I even feel it is somewhat like a microcosm of the current consumer market.

Those high-end restaurants that represented the economic upswing have quietly folded, and what has replaced them is not simply a "happy home for office workers," but something with other things added on top: emotional value, pop-culture elements, and some things that perhaps our generation can no longer quite understand.

2

This time back in Beijing I recorded two episodes.

One was with my journalist "goddess," Ms. Ling Huawei, editor-in-chief of Caixin. The very first thing I blurted out was that I had "grown up" reading her articles. Of course, "grown up" here means making a living in the financial industry and then turning away from it.

It was also a coincidence that on the day we met, a police notification about the founder of CreditEase came out, and the topic we wanted to discuss was precisely the investment and wealth-management traps that ordinary people encountered during her years of witnessing and reporting on the great era of China's finance and asset-management industry, and whether, in hindsight, there was any possibility of avoiding them.

However, whether it was this episode with her or the one after it, immediately after recording I received notice from the other party's organization that they did not want the CreditEase matter mentioned in the program.

But I was thinking, perhaps the reason ordinary people cannot avoid some wealth-management traps is precisely that we would never have known beforehand that they were traps. If every lesson could be fully discussed and made public, would things be different?

3

Another recording was with a young economist whom I greatly respect; the book he published more than a decade ago could even count as my introductory book on macroeconomics.

But when he sat down across from me, all I saw was exhaustion all over his face.

He is now the head of a well-known think tank, and next week he will hold a grand conference in Shanghai gathering economists from home and abroad. Add to that the news these past two days of the downfall of a former leading official who once appeared at all kinds of conferences, and the pressure on his shoulders can well be imagined.

But after every one of his arguments, I wanted to press him with a question: you are talking about ten years from now, about the new economy, about the new generation riding the wave. What about now? What about other industries? What about the old people?

What is to become of them? Do they deserve to be eliminated by this era?

Of course, deep down, I actually agree with him. Heaven and earth are not benevolent; they treat all things as straw dogs. The great wheel of the era will not stop for anyone, and every technological revolution in human history has come at the cost of sacrificing one generation, or even most of several generations.

They turn into a number in a book, a byname, or perhaps leave nothing behind at all.

But I still did not want such words to come from the mouth of a scholar who once could look at economic problems from the perspective of ordinary people.

So I really did press him, and his reaction was to say that he himself also belonged to the group left behind. It seemed that in this way he could appear less cold, and could persuade himself to look forward.

I opened my mouth and did not press further.

4

Besides the scholar believing that AI can solve many problems, officials at universities also believe that embracing AI is the better choice for students. I asked, aren't you worried that they will stop thinking, or won't know how to think? He said that smart people will always find a way to think, and that for them AI is a better booster.

I don't deny that. But what about those who are not so smart?

I was speechless again. It seems I have been away from the workplace too long and no longer know what things are like now.

For some reason, I suddenly thought of the robot Giskard in *Foundation*.

In order to push humanity toward the galaxy, it chose to let Earth gradually become no longer habitable, because it believed that doing so could open a better future for humanity.

But this decision also plunged it into a contradiction that the Three Laws of Robotics could not bear, and ultimately led it to shut down.

In its final moments, another robot, Daneel, held its hand and tried to make it believe that it had made the right choice for humanity and should not fall into contradiction.

Giskard said: "Because I am not certain."

No one can be certain. Channel: Finance and Economics. This content is published with the author's authorization; the views represent only the author and do not represent the position of Huxiu. If you have objections or complaints about this manuscript, please contact tougao@huxiu.com. Everyone who is changing and wants to change the world is on the Huxiu APP[ ]