Musk: Robotaxi expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2027, Optimus to be delivered to external customers by end of next year

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+1 Musk: Robotaxi expected to contribute significantly to revenue next year, humanoid robots to be delivered to external customers by the end of next year. The Paper reporter Wu Yuli, 2026-10-22 09:28 Source: The Paper ∙ 10% Company > Listen to full text Font size

Tesla disclosed the latest progress on autonomous driving, humanoid robots and chip manufacturing projects.

On October 22, Tesla CEO Musk said at Tesla's third-quarter earnings call that the company plans to develop its Robotaxi business into an important source of revenue and profit by 2027; the Optimus humanoid robot still needs to resolve issues such as design, AI capabilities and durability, and is expected to begin deliveries to enterprises other than Tesla only by the end of 2027.

Regarding autonomous driving, Tesla said its Robotaxi service is continuing to expand its operating scope, but management emphasized that business expansion is not only constrained by regulatory approval; software capabilities, safety validation and the construction of operating systems are also key factors.

Robotaxi: Expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2027

Ashok Elluswamy, head of Tesla's autonomous driving business, said at the earnings call that the Robotaxi service will not be limited to Austin; the company plans to launch the service in Dallas next month and then expand to more cities.

On September 3, Tesla began using Cybercab to provide Robotaxi ride services in Austin, having previously used the Model Y. Tesla disclosed at the earnings call that the size of its Cybercab fleet in Austin had expanded to 10 times its original size about one month after launch. The company is also gradually extending operating hours and plans to advance capabilities such as all-weather operation, coverage of more weather conditions and higher-speed roads by the end of this year.

As of the end of the third quarter, its Robotaxi cumulative unsupervised driving mileage was close to 2 million miles, a sharp increase from the previous quarter.

However, Elluswamy emphasized that the expansion of Robotaxi does not depend entirely on regulatory approval. Tesla is still resolving software challenges and treats safety as an operating principle.

Regarding the Robotaxi profit outlook that investors care about, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said that as the operating scale expands, Tesla is expected to significantly increase this business's contribution to revenue and profit in 2027.

Musk added that Robotaxi's contribution is expected to gradually become apparent starting in the second quarter of 2027 and may become an important business by the third or fourth quarter.

On unit economics, Taneja acknowledged that Tesla has not yet reached its cost target of 30 cents per mile, but believes that as the fleet expands, vehicle utilization improves, and operating links such as passenger pickup and cleaning are gradually optimized, the company is expected to achieve this target.

Tesla also disclosed that the design and manufacturing of Cybercab are being prepared for large-scale production.

Management said that Cybercab has about 50% fewer parts than other models Tesla has previously produced, which helps reduce manufacturing complexity. The company is currently arranging production according to demand for Robotaxi services and believes that the model's actual production capacity is expected to be higher than the production line capacity currently disclosed.

Regarding the timetable for individuals to purchase Cybercab, Tesla responded that the company hopes to deliver a small number of vehicles to customers by the end of 2026, but the Cybercab produced in the initial stage will still mainly be used for Tesla's own Robotaxi fleet.

Musk emphasized that Cybercab will mainly target the mobility business in the future, and most vehicles are expected to be owned and operated by Tesla rather than sold as private cars in the traditional sense.

Optimus: Mass production still in early stage, external customer deliveries expected only by the end of next year

Regarding the Optimus humanoid robot, which investors are highly focused on, Musk explicitly reminded the outside world at the earnings call not to expect large-scale deliveries too early.

Musk said Tesla has started early production preparations for a high-capacity Optimus production line at its Fremont factory in California, but some designs of the robot still need to be adjusted. He expects that reaching an annualized production rate of 20,000 units per week may take at least another year, or even longer.

He explained that a humanoid robot is a complex new product, and large-scale production not only requires building large factories and a complete supply chain, but also must ensure that the design is safe, reliable and durable and has the AI capability to perform open-ended tasks. Tesla expects these issues to be resolved by the end of 2027, when it will begin delivering robots to enterprises other than Tesla.

Musk also pointed out that the main bottleneck for Optimus at present is not external data collection, but that the AI architecture still needs to be improved.

Musk said Tesla hopes to first produce about 10,000 to 20,000 robots for large-scale autonomous training. The company is building the Optimus Academy to let robots practice various tasks and feed the training results back to the model, forming a cycle of continuous improvement.

He said that because robots do not have a large existing fleet like cars from which to collect real-world data, Tesla needs to first manufacture a certain number of robots and then accumulate data through the robots' own practice, simulation training and repeated operations in real environments.

On the hardware side, Tesla executives said the robot's hand remains one of the most challenging components, and the related design also involves complex electromechanical systems, gears and reliability issues. Tesla is advancing production line construction in Fremont and has begun building a larger-scale robot manufacturing plant in Austin, Texas.

On the timing of commercialization, Musk responded that Tesla remains optimistic about Optimus's long-term potential, but in the short term it needs to complete multiple tasks such as design iteration, supply chain construction and AI training. The company did not provide a clear external customer order volume or sales revenue target on the call.

FSD: An important factor driving vehicle demand

Musk called FSD (Full Self-Driving) an important factor currently driving demand for Tesla vehicles.

Tesla said that of new vehicle deliveries in the North American market, more than 75% include the FSD (Supervised) subscription service, and the number of related subscribers reached 1.74 million at the end of the third quarter, up 67% year on year.

Taneja said that as the FSD business expands, Tesla will disclose more related metrics in the future, including revenue and other key data. Regarding an analyst's estimate that FSD annual recurring revenue could approach $1 billion, he said the estimate is basically correct.

On technological competition, Musk believes that autonomous driving software is not an easily replicable product. Autonomous driving chief Elluswamy said that developing a system that demonstrates well and achieving a system that can remain safe over millions of miles of driving are two problems of vastly different difficulty. He believes that after Tesla rolls out driver-supervision-free FSD to a broader customer fleet, it will be difficult for other companies to reach the same level within the next few years.

Musk also added that Tesla hopes to obtain EU-wide approval for FSD in the coming months and expects approval to be completed by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest.

In addition, Tesla is also developing a new AI map and navigation architecture. Ashok said the system will combine fleet data, user preferences and voice interaction features to gradually cover navigation tasks such as route planning, parking and destination handling. The company plans to launch some features first in the V15 software version and continue to expand them in the coming months.

On vehicle manufacturing, Musk reiterated that Tesla's goal is to achieve annual production of 5 million vehicles around 2030. He said the company is increasing capacity at existing factories.

Terafab: Aiming for mass chip production in 2028, long-term investment may exceed $100 billion

Tesla also disclosed the timetable and investment scale of the Terafab semiconductor project.

Musk said the Terafab plant in Austin plans to begin equipment commissioning in the first half of 2027 and hopes to manufacture the first batch of test chips around May or June of that year. Tesla's goal is to achieve mass production of some kind of practically useful chip around the third quarter of 2028.

However, Musk stressed that this project requires a large amount of capital investment. According to him, by early 2028, Terafab's investment in capital equipment will reach the scale of tens of billions of dollars; in the long term, cumulative investment may exceed $100 billion. How Tesla and SpaceX will share the related costs remains to be determined.

Regarding capital expenditure that investors are focused on, Taneja said Tesla expects capital expenditure of about $20 billion in 2026, mainly supported by operating cash flow. The company previously disclosed a full-year capital expenditure target of $25 billion. He also said capital expenditure will continue to increase in the coming years. Responsible editor: Li Yuequn Image editor: Le Yufeng The Paper news tip: 021-962866 The Paper, unauthorized reproduction prohibited +1 Favorite I want to report #TeslaRobotaxiBusiness #OptimusHumanoidRobot #TerafabSemiconductorProject View more