OpenAI's funding target shrinks, Anthropic reportedly faces rating setback, Nasdaq falls 3.46% in a single day

Just moments ago, Silicon Valley's two most dazzling AI twin stars—OpenAI and Anthropic—both slammed hard into a wall on Wall Street.

OpenAI wanted to raise $30 billion, but investors were only willing to put up $11 billion—less than half.

No choice but to cut the fundraising target by a third.

The other one, Company A.

About to have the largest IPO in history, but got stabbed in the back by a major investor:

This chill had already spread at light speed from the primary market to the secondary market—

Nasdaq, crashed.

At Friday's close, the Nasdaq fell 3.46%, the largest single-day drop in months.

Nvidia, AMD and the entire chip sector plunged together, Amazon's cash flow was burned dry by AI infrastructure, and Intel, whose earnings blew up, plummeted nearly 30% in a single day.

A complete deep freeze: the Nasdaq fell about 5.3% for the entire month of October, its worst month since March 2025.

Everything was just like the eve of the internet bubble bursting 26 years ago.

Altman can't borrow anymore either

Unbelievable.

OpenAI—the OpenAI of GPT-4 and Sora, the OpenAI led by Sam Altman—actually stumbled in fundraising??

According to the latest inside story disclosed by The Wall Street Journal, Altman was still full of confidence this time, aiming the new funding round straight at $30 billion.

Remember, this is OpenAI. Over the past year, every VC, every hot money, was fighting tooth and nail to get in.

Even a fundraising superman as strong as Sam Altman now has to lower his posture, saying he will keep working hard in the coming weeks to 'pass the hat' to family offices and high-net-worth individuals.

Something's off. Way off.

If OpenAI's setback were just an isolated case, then the experience of the other AI giant really sends a chill down your spine.

Company A is done for too

Everyone knows that Anthropic, OpenAI's most hated competitor, is about to IPO, and it could be the largest IPO in human history.

For this IPO, they planned an extremely grand money-burning plan:

From now until 2045, they will spend more than $800 billion on computing infrastructure.

Where will so much money come from?

Borrowing, of course. To borrow so much money at low cost, the company must have a good credit rating—the technical term is 'investment grade.'

It's like your personal credit score: only with a high rating will banks be willing to lend to you at very low interest.

And then, right at this critical moment, something happened.

One of their major investors, private equity giant Blackstone, suddenly changed its tune.

Blackstone had been telling other investors, don't worry, Anthropic will definitely get an 'investment grade' rating before the end of the year.

But now they are telling investors that, based on signals received from major rating agencies, Anthropic will likely fail to obtain an 'investment grade' rating after going public.

That means, in the eyes of professional institutions, your default risk is high. Many pension funds and insurance funds are by regulation simply not allowed to touch this kind of 'junk bond.'

The rest, those willing to lend you money, will inevitably demand much higher interest.

Think about it: originally planning to borrow $800 billion, with interest rising from 3% to 6%—what does that mean? The company's entire financial model would definitely collapse outright.

Many plans may have to be overturned and redone because of the budget.

I came across an analyst's post that put it very well:

Those companies that missed targets, fell short of expectations, or failed to execute are being punished.

'Punished'—that word is used with absolute precision.

Whether it's OpenAI's fundraising setback or the rating dilemma facing Anthropic, in essence it is the capital market repricing risk.

People are starting to get scared.

Scared of this endless 'cash burn,' scared that the money they put in will ultimately buy only a pile of expensive servers and a growing line of losses.

On the very day the Financial Times broke the news about Anthropic's rating problem, panic over the AI bubble swept through the secondary market like a virus—

The Nasdaq 100 index plunged 3.5% at the close, the largest single-day drop since June.

But previously everyone assumed that as long as the story was sexy enough, endless cheap money could always be raised from the capital markets.

But now, Wall Street is telling you with actions:

Even the landlord's family has no surplus grain.

To better understand this drama, let's rewind the timeline a little.

Actually, before the Anthropic news came out, market sentiment was already terrible.

Let me give you an example: Amazon.

On the surface, its AWS cloud service revenue surged 39%, strong beyond belief.

But on closer look, people found something wasn't right.

Amazon, which had $14.8 billion in positive cash flow a year ago, now has trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$42.4 billion.

???

Microsoft, Meta, Google... these so-called 'hyperscalers' have accounted for more than one-third of S&P 500 capital expenditure over the past year.

And now you're telling us the giants have no money either???

But now, as they increasingly rely on external financing, and as even a star company like Anthropic faces a credit crisis, everyone is starting to feel uneasy.

A groundbreaking technology emerges, everyone goes crazy for it, believing it will change the world.

Countless companies, haloed by their labs, paint enormous pies; even with not a cent of profit, their valuations can be bid into the sky.

Data centers and the like are also being rolled out desperately.

Until one day, everyone suddenly realizes that these companies are burning cash far faster than they can earn it.

But the road to the future has never been a straight line. It is inevitably full of bubbles, hype, and painful clearing-out.

Today, the wall that OpenAI and Anthropic have hit on Wall Street may be the beginning of that clearing-out.

It's over.

One More Thing

To be honest, I sometimes feel that history really is just a cycle.