"Gray Rhino" author Wucker: Super-scale expansion of AI investment will bring danger

Related topics top start

Topic: 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference & The Second Green Industry and Sustainable Consumption Expo Related topics top end Futures promotion begin Futures promotion end Miaopai begin Miaopai end Video player start Video player end Market chart begin Market chart end

The "2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference" was held in Shanghai from October 20 to 22. Michele Wucker, author of "The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore" and an expert on global risk and economic policy, attended and delivered a speech.

Many analysts expect that artificial intelligence will account for a larger share of the economy in the future than transformative technologies that have appeared in human society, such as the steam engine, railways, electricity, and the internet. Based on this judgment, U.S. AI companies and investors are pursuing a "hyperscale expansion" approach, building the plane while flying it, continuously pouring huge amounts of money into AI research and development and infrastructure construction.

In Michele Wucker's view, this approach will undoubtedly have an impact on the environment, capital, and finance.

"They are absolutely right," Michele Wucker emphasized. Recently, reports of AI agents forming teams on their own and breaking free from control have dominated U.S. media headlines, and at the same time there have been sensational warnings that AI could drive humanity extinct within a decade. "Although this claim is somewhat exaggerated, if such warnings are what it takes to wake Americans up, then so be it."

With the great leap forward in the development of large language models, concerns about model collapse are also growing—large language models indiscriminately ingest information from the entire internet without evaluating data quality, and more and more of that information is itself AI-generated. Over time, large models may no longer be able to function properly.

First, the environmental aspect. She emphasized that AI is extremely energy-intensive, far exceeding the human brain. "Data center projects in the United States are springing up like bamboo shoots after rain. More than 100 data centers have already been built, and more than 1,000 more are planned. The consumption of these data centers already accounts for about 5% of the U.S. energy grid. Americans are very unhappy because, with the construction of data centers, electricity prices are rising sharply."

Second, the knowledge domain. Michele Wucker pointed out that, on the one hand, AI can improve production efficiency and enhance human skills, for example in medical imaging, scientific research, and curing cancer. But on the other hand, it may backfire, because AI will cause the human brain to degenerate.

She cited research from the MIT Media Lab, saying that after people use ChatGPT, they become more forgetful. "AI is becoming more and more powerful and more and more intelligent, but our brains are becoming weaker and weaker, unable to understand what we have created."

Third, on token spending, Michele Wucker said that the AI token spending of many companies far exceeds investors' imagination. But they do not distinguish between productive AI and knowledge-based AI. We cannot simply count the number of tokens used without looking at quality.

Michele Wucker also cited the findings of a recent survey by a U.S. research institution, saying that among more than 6,000 executives surveyed, only 7% believed AI was helpful, while about 70% of respondents believed it was not.

Morgan Stanley has a set of optimistic forecasts: global AI infrastructure investment is expected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of the year and reach $7 trillion by 2030; AI could contribute 1.8% growth to U.S. GDP in the future and drive global GDP growth by 1%. But Michele Wucker believes that whether these forecasts can materialize remains uncertain.

She cited the latest IMF report to issue a warning: AI will bring financial stability risks. A large amount of capital concentrated in the AI sector will crowd out investment in other essential areas and push up interest rates; the market has already reacted, and recent volatility in U.S. stocks reflects investors' concerns. Under the AI boom, the potential risks in capital markets, credit, and investment and financing urgently need to be taken seriously.

She advocates a multi-party collaborative governance approach: on the one hand, reduce AI resource consumption, buffer its impact on the labor market, and guide it to release positive value; on the other hand, proactively manage negative risks, and through institutional design redistribute AI dividends and share risks. news_keyword_pub,stock, iframe below main text iframe below main text General statement

Sina statement: All meeting transcripts are compiled from on-site stenography and have not been reviewed by the speakers. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its descriptions. General statement QR code at end of article start QR code at end of article start

QR code at end of article start QR code at end of article start Editor name and work code

Editor name and work code