Clark says Anthropic's internal model predicts AI will boost US GDP growth by nearly 50% by 2030

On October 17, 2026, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark delivered the Per Jacobsson lecture at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, citing Anthropic's internal modeling to claim that if models can autonomously complete a wide range of tasks and spread rapidly, US GDP could reach $44 trillion by 2030, an increase of nearly 50% over current levels. He also said that this year he had obtained convincing evidence that the singularity has already begun, with AI autonomously producing results in frontier scientific fields, and cited progress including the top score on Humanity's Last Exam rising from 8% in January 2025 to 67.7% with Claude Opus 5.5, and FrontierMath rising from 2% to 94%. Subsequent reporting noted that the $44 trillion figure comes from the most aggressive "extreme scenario" in Anthropic's September research paper "The Economic Scenarios of Transformative AI," which requires the share of labor tasks involving AI to rise from 1.4% in mid-2026 to 30%.

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1. Report date Oct 18· 7 reports

   Clark says Anthropic's internal model predicts AI will drive nearly 50% US GDP growth by 2030

   Source:Import AI