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KKR senior advisor Ming Lu offered a judgment that AI returns will arrive much later than the market expects. Related reporting notes that the scale of bets on AI in the U.S. market is unprecedented, AI-related capital expenditure has risen to about 2% of U.S. GDP, and AI-related investment accounted for 39% of U.S. economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, higher than the 28% at the peak of the internet bubble; the combined market value of the "Magnificent Seven" is $25 trillion, accounting for 35% of the S&P 500. This judgment is currently reported by a single source, with no subsequent factual developments yet.
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The US market has never bet so heavily on a single theme, but AI returns may take decadesDevelopments
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Oct 22
Fortune AI
The US market has never bet so heavily on a single theme, but AI returns may take decades
Ming Lu, a senior advisor at KKR, believes the scale of the US market's bet on AI is unprecedented, but the payoff will come far later than the market expects. AI-related capital expenditure has risen to about 2% of US GDP, and AI-related investment accounted for 39% of US economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025, higher than the 28% at the peak of the dot-com bubble. The combined market value of the "Magnificent Seven" is $25 trillion, accounting for 35% of the S&P 500.