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Nomura's global memory research team expects the probability that the AI investment race continues and the semiconductor super-cycle persists to be about 75%. The team also gave probabilities for other scenarios: a capex slowdown at about 20%, and financing failure at about 5%. On the supply side, 2027 memory supply volumes and prices were locked in through long-term agreements in October 2026, and defaulting parties may be required to pay security deposits equivalent to 50% to 100% of the annual demand value. Nomura believes that a closure of financing channels is the risk most likely to break the current setup, while power shortages are more likely to delay rather than eliminate demand. This judgment is currently reported by a single source, with no subsequent factual developments yet.
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Nomura: 75% probability the AI arms race continues; 2027 memory chip shortage essentially locked inDevelopments
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Oct 25
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Nomura: 75% probability the AI arms race continues; 2027 memory chip shortage essentially locked in
Nomura's global memory research team estimates roughly a 75% probability that the AI investment race continues and the semiconductor supercycle persists, about a 20% probability of capex slowdown, and about 5% from financing failure. 2027 memory supply volumes and prices were locked in via long-term agreements in October 2026, and defaulting parties may need to pay security deposits equivalent to 50% to 100% of the annual demand value. Nomura believes that closure of financing channels is the risk most likely to break the current setup, while power shortages are more likely to delay rather than eliminate demand.