Understand this story
In a research report dated October 22, 2026, Dario Perkins, Chief Macro Strategist at TS Lombard, put forward a forecast arguing that the AI capital expenditure boom is highly likely to come to an end in early 2028, triggering a severe market reset. According to a Wall Street See (Wallstreetcn) report, the research report projects that the S&P 500 will fall 30%, tech stocks will plunge 40%, and roughly $20 trillion in market value will be wiped out; the report argues that current AI revenue growth mainly comes from capital expenditure circulation among tech giants and debt financing, and lists six chain-reaction triggers: revenue falling short of expectations, rising credit risk, depreciation pressure, a wave of IPOs, the semiconductor cycle, and regulatory and safety concerns. The report also forecasts that U.S. GDP will decline by about 2 percentage points and that about 800,000 data center-related jobs will be lost, but it believes that private-sector balance sheets are healthy and that the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates, making the recession closer to that of 1990 or 2001 rather than 2008. At present, this forecast remains a research report projection, with no subsequent factual developments yet.
AI-generated from public reports
Latest development · Report
TS Lombard speculates the AI bubble may burst in early 2028, with U.S. tech stocks potentially plunging 40%Developments
1 confirmed developments
TS Lombard research report warns AI capex boom may end in early 2028
Source:Wallstreetcn
Reports and discussion timeline
Browse reports and discussion by time. Their evidence levels remain distinct.
Oct 23
Wallstreetcn
TS Lombard speculates the AI bubble may burst in early 2028, with U.S. tech stocks potentially plunging 40%
In an October 22 research note, TS Lombard Chief Macro Strategist Dario Perkins projected that the AI capital expenditure boom could end in early 2028, with the S&P 500 falling 30%, tech stocks plunging 40%, and about $20 trillion in market value evaporating. The report argues that current AI revenue growth mainly comes from the capital expenditure cycle among tech giants and debt financing, and lists six chain-reaction triggers: revenue falling short of expectations, rising credit risk, depreciation pressure, an IPO wave, the semiconductor cycle, and regulatory and safety concerns. The report estimates that U.S. GDP would fall by about 2 percentage points and about 800,000 data center-related jobs would be lost, but private-sector balance sheets are healthy and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates, making the recession closer to those of 1990 or 2001 than to 2008.