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On November 2, 2026, BlackRock senior portfolio manager Rosenberg offered this assessment: in the market's view, geopolitical risk has given way to AI risk. According to a same-day report by Cailianshe, Rosenberg noted that the previously high 80% correlation between crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields in October came to an abrupt halt, and the market viewed weakness in the AI trade as a signal of a weakening U.S. economy. He also mentioned that U.S. corporate investment grew 12.7% in the third quarter, of which investment in information processing equipment grew 37%, and that the GDP's strong performance was mainly driven by AI; in a disinflationary environment, long-term U.S. Treasuries can serve as a hedge, but high oil prices and inflation still limit their effectiveness as a safe haven. At present, there are no subsequent developments regarding this assessment.
AI-generated from public reports
Latest development · Report
BlackRock's Rosenberg: Oil-Treasury Correlation Broke Down in October, AI Trade Becomes Market's Top RiskDevelopments
1 confirmed developments
BlackRock's Rosenberg Says Geopolitical Risk Has Given Way to AI Risk
Source:Cailian Press
Reports and discussion timeline
Browse reports and discussion by time. Their evidence levels remain distinct.
Nov 3
Yicai
BlackRock's Rosenberg: Oil-Treasury Correlation Broke Down in October, AI Trade Becomes Market's Top Risk
Rosenberg, Senior Portfolio Manager of BlackRock's Systematic Alternatives ETF, said that this year the correlation between U.S. Treasuries and oil reached as high as 80%, but in October this extremely high correlation came to an abrupt halt, while AI stocks sharply corrected over the same period, and the market has already come to view the AI trade as the number one risk. He pointed out that the AI trade has become an important component of the bond market, and global bond markets can absorb the expected $4 trillion in AI debt over the next four years, but market capacity is not unlimited, and AI companies' debt issuance needs will raise the risk of price declines and spread widening.
Nov 2
36Kr · AI
AI Cannot Cure the CEO's Serious Illness: Capital Begins to Price in "AI Risk"
In October, the 80% correlation between crude oil and US Treasury yields that had held for a year suddenly broke down. BlackRock portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenberg believes geopolitical risk has given way to AI risk, with the Mag 7 collectively pulling back and Google's market value evaporating by nearly 500 billion in a single week. Santander's AI projects created 194 million euros in business value in the first three quarters, while Microsoft issued 25 billion dollars in bonds to double down on AI and its CDS spread continued to climb, as the market began to price AI in tiers. The article points out that most "AI autonomous agents" are actually backed by human outsourcing, and during internal testing of Meta's Muse agent, a large number of calls were handled by real people at call centers.
TMTPost · AGI
AI Can't Cure the CEO's Serious Illness: Capital Begins to Price in "AI Risk"
Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, pointed out that in October the 80% correlation between crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields that had held for a year suddenly broke down. In the market's eyes, geopolitical risk has given way to AI risk, with the Mag 7 collectively pulling back and Google's market value evaporating by nearly 500 billion in a single week. Santander's AI projects created 194 million euros in business value in the first three quarters, while hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditure has outpaced free cash flow, and Microsoft issued $25 billion in bonds to double down on AI. The "AI agents" of companies such as Dazzle AI and Duckbill still rely on human outsourcing as a backstop in real-world deployment, and Meta's internal testing of Muse also relies heavily on real people at call centers standing in.
Cailian Press
BlackRock: The Link Between Crude Oil and US Treasury Yields Has Broken Down; AI Risk Has Replaced Geopolitical Risk
Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock, pointed out that the previously high correlation of up to 80% between crude oil and US Treasury yields came to an abrupt halt in October. The market views the weakness in AI trades as a signal of a weakening US economy, and geopolitical risk has given way to AI risk. US corporate investment grew 12.7% in the third quarter, of which investment in information processing equipment rose 37%, and the GDP's strong performance was mainly driven by AI. He believes that long-end US Treasuries can serve as a hedge in a disinflationary environment, but high oil prices and inflation still limit their effectiveness as a safe haven.