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On October 27, 2026, Nomura released a research report on global robotics. The report holds that robotics is currently in the stage after the 2012 AlexNet moment and before GPT-2, and that the true "ChatGPT moment" will not be declared at a launch event, but will come only when the data flywheel, model capabilities, and hardware consistency all cross the critical threshold at the same time. The report proposes five operational metrics as thresholds: currently, robots can operate only a few hours before requiring human intervention, and their operational precision in factory environments is about 60%, whereas the industry requires over 98%; it is expected to take three to five years to close the gap. On the data front, only about 100,000 hours of usable data are available, while the critical threshold is about 1 million hours; data collected by Tesla's Optimus has only just surpassed 500,000 hours.
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Oct 27
36Kr · AI
Nomura report: The ChatGPT moment for global robotics has not yet arrived
The Nomura report argues that robotics is currently in a stage after the 2012 AlexNet moment but before GPT-2; the true ChatGPT moment will not be announced at a product launch, but will come only when the data flywheel, model capabilities, and hardware consistency all cross the critical threshold at the same time. The report proposes five operational metrics as thresholds: currently, robots can operate only a few hours before requiring human intervention, and operating accuracy in factory environments is about 60% while the industry requires more than 98%; it is expected to take three to five years to close the gap. On the data side, available data amounts to only about 100,000 hours, while the critical threshold is about 1 million hours; data collected by Tesla Optimus has just surpassed 500,000 hours.