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On October 25, 2026, Elon Musk put forward a judgment: compute capacity will sit idle in partially built data centers. Rohan Paul cited this judgment the same day, using multiple sets of data to illustrate the mismatch between power equipment lead times and GPU delivery speeds. The Nscale IPO filing he cited shows that as of August 31, about 25,000 GPUs were running, while the total active and contracted volume was 461,000, meaning about 95% were not yet running. A Wood Mackenzie report from July 2026 stated that in the first quarter of 2026, lead times for generator step-up transformers exceeded 160 weeks, compared with 143 weeks in 2024, while high-voltage circuit breakers rose to 125 weeks. GE Vernova's gas equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 100 GW to 116 GW in the second quarter of 2026, and turbines ordered now will not be delivered until about 2031. At present, this judgment remains at the proposal stage, with no subsequent factual developments.
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Oct 25
Rohan Paul
Rohan Paul cites data: lengthening lead times for electrical equipment may leave compute stranded in half-finished data centers
Rohan Paul cites Musk's judgment that many partially built data centers will have large amounts of stranded compute, and uses multiple data sets to illustrate the mismatch between electrical equipment lead times and GPU arrival speeds. Nscale's IPO filing shows that as of August 31, about 25,000 GPUs were running, while the total active and contracted volume was 461,000, meaning about 95% were not yet running. A Wood Mackenzie report from July 2026 states that in the first quarter of 2026, lead times for generator step-up transformers exceeded 160 weeks, compared with 143 weeks in 2024, and high-voltage circuit breakers rose to 125 weeks. In the second quarter of 2026, GE Vernova's gas equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 100 GW to 116 GW, and turbines ordered now will not be delivered until about 2031.