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Based on project-level microdata from data centers, SWS Macro estimates that the peak in U.S. AI investment growth may occur in Q4 2026, with a downturn phase beginning in 2027—one quarter later than the market consensus. The institution said in its report that capital expenditure by the five major U.S. cloud providers in 2026 may exceed $800 billion, with year-on-year growth of 94%, accounting for 2.5% of U.S. GDP, and that growth may fall to 40% and 10% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. The estimate uses three deferral rates of 20%, 33%, and 45%, with investment within one year determined by the planned stock and projects under construction. There have been no subsequent developments so far.
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Shenwan Hongyuan: The Inflection Point in US AI Capital Expenditure Growth May Be ApproachingDevelopments
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Oct 27
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Shenwan Hongyuan: The Inflection Point in US AI Capital Expenditure Growth May Be Approaching
Based on project-level microdata from data centers, Shenwan Hongyuan Macro estimates that the peak in US AI investment growth may occur in Q4 2026, with a downturn beginning in 2027—one quarter later than the market consensus. The report states that capital expenditure by the five major US cloud providers in 2026 may exceed $800 billion, with year-over-year growth of 94%, accounting for 2.5% of US GDP; growth may then fall to 40% and 10% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. The estimates use three shelving rates of 20%, 33%, and 45%, with investment within one year determined by the planned stock and projects under construction.