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On November 4, 2026, Musk offered a judgment on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast: by the end of this year, the number of AI chips manufactured globally will exceed the upper limit of what can actually be powered on and lit up, and millions of top-tier GPUs may pile up in warehouses with nowhere to plug in. His basis for this is that chip production capacity is growing exponentially, while in most regions of the world outside China, grid power generation is nearly flat, and the approval cycles for building substations and power plants often run five to ten years. He also mentioned Tesla Megapack energy storage, the xAI Memphis compute cluster, and the SpaceX orbital solar data center plan, arguing that power, not compute, will become the industry's bottleneck. There is currently no subsequent factual development regarding this judgment.
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Nov 4
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Musk Says AI Chip Production Capacity Will Exceed the Powerable Limit by Year-End
On the Dwarkesh Patel podcast, Musk judged that by the end of this year, the number of AI chips manufactured globally will exceed the actual limit of what can be powered and lit up, and that millions of top-tier GPUs may pile up in warehouses with nowhere to plug in. His basis: chip production capacity is growing exponentially, while in most regions of the world outside China, grid power generation is nearly flat, and the approval cycle for building substations and power plants often runs five to ten years. He also mentioned Tesla Megapack energy storage, the xAI Memphis compute cluster, and SpaceX's orbital solar data center plans, arguing that power, not compute, will become the industry's bottleneck.