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On October 29, 2026, Karina Nguyen announced the launch of BallotBench, a live benchmark that has nine frontier AI agents forecasting the 2026 U.S. midterm elections from now until November 3. Each agent has its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget, updates its forecasts daily, and can request data or additional resources. After the election, their accuracy will be compared with that of top superforecasters, election commentators, and the wisdom of crowds on Kalshi and Polymarket. There are currently no further developments.
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Oct 29
Karina Nguyen
BallotBench Live Benchmark: 9 Frontier AI Agents Predict the US Midterm Elections
Thoughtful has launched BallotBench, a live benchmark in which 9 frontier AI agents will predict the 2026 US midterm elections from now until November 3. Each agent has its own independent sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget, updates its predictions daily, and can request data or additional resources. After the election, their accuracy will be compared against top superforecasters, election commentators, and the wisdom of the crowds on Kalshi and Polymarket.