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LatestTomasz Tunguz: Who Will Cross the Trillion-Dollar Revenue Chasm First

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  1. Tomasz Tunguz's blogOpinion
    AI score65

    Tomasz Tunguz: Who Will Cross the Trillion-Dollar Revenue Chasm First

    Tomasz Tunguz analyzes the $1 trillion revenue targets separately proposed by Andy Jassy and Elon Musk. Extrapolating at current growth rates with 15% annual decay, Google Cloud and SpaceX will reach $250 billion in quarterly revenue ($1 trillion annualized) in 2030, with AWS following in 2032. He notes that the market has sold off some cloud providers out of concern that cash flow from legacy businesses cannot sustain capital expenditures; Google's search advertising growth has already slowed from 19% in Q1 to 12% in Q3, and AI Mode's monetization rate is lower than that of traditional search. Microsoft is the only hyperscaler to boost ARPU through AI faster than seat growth slows, while ServiceNow's market value has fallen 29% on concerns that its seat-based business will be eroded by AI.

    Why read thisThe article uses quarterly data from four cloud providers to project a path to trillion-dollar revenue, and points out that the erosion of legacy cash cows by AI is the key variable for crossing the chasm.

  1. English text is being prepared.Model releases
    AI score76

    Mistral AI Opens the Mistral Large 4 Model Weights: 1T Parameters, 49 Billion Activated Parameters

    On October 29 local time, Mistral AI officially opened the model weights of Mistral Large 4 (codename le Chonk). This is a natively multimodal model with 1 trillion total parameters and 49 billion activated parameters, trained from scratch on 3,800 NVIDIA Grace Blackwell GPUs in its own data center in Europe. The company says it scores 48% on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index, roughly on par with GLM-5.3, but consumes 47% fewer Tokens per task on average. The model is released under a modified MIT license: personal, academic, fine-tuning, and conventional commercial use are free, while cloud providers offering MaaS resale need to obtain a separate commercial license; online API pricing is $0.70 per million input Tokens and $2.10 per million output Tokens.

    Why read thisThe original text provides the open weights, license restrictions, and a comparison of Token consumption for coding agents, which can be used to judge the boundaries of self-hosting and resale.

  1. English text is being prepared.Model releases
    AI score87

    OpenAI Releases Low-Cost Model GPT-6.1 Terra, Cost per Task About One-Ninth That of Claude Opus 5.5

    On October 27, OpenAI launched a new model, GPT-6.1 Terra, focused on completing complex computer operation tasks at lower cost, with particular strength in visual reasoning and desktop software operation. At medium reasoning effort on Agents' Last Exam, its score is 15 percentage points higher than GPT-5.6 Terra, at about one-third the cost of the latter; at the highest reasoning effort, the cost per task is about one-ninth that of Claude Opus 5.5. The model is now available to Plus, Pro, Enterprise, and Edu users, can be used in ChatGPT Work and Codex, and has the API model identifier gpt-6.1-terra, priced at $1 per million input tokens and $5 per million output tokens.

    Why read thisThe original text provides multiple benchmarks and per-task cost comparisons, which can be used to assess the trade-offs of low-cost models in desktop automation.

  2. English text is being prepared.
    AI score90

    OpenAI announces AI model achieves three scientific breakthroughs, involving the local smoothing conjecture, ETH, and the existence of quantum field theory

    OpenAI announced that its AI model has achieved three breakthroughs in the fields of mathematics, computer science, and physics. The mathematics and computer science results have been formally verified through Lean and the proof materials have been made public, while the physics results are being reviewed by experts including Nobel Prize laureates in physics. In mathematics, the model provided a proof of the local smoothing conjecture in all dimensions, and thereby resolved the Kakeya conjecture and the Stein restriction conjecture in all dimensions; in computer science, the model provided a proof that the Exponential Time Hypothesis (ETH) is false. OpenAI has invited external experts to lead the verification and interpretation of the results, and has uploaded the natural-language proofs and Lean proofs to a public GitHub repository.

    Why read thisOpenAI says the model produced proofs in three fields—mathematics, computational complexity, and physics—and has released Lean formalization materials, allowing readers to learn about its verification and collaboration mechanisms.

  1. IT Home · Artificial Intelligence
    AI score78

    Anthropic Files S-1 to Prepare for Nasdaq Listing

    Anthropic has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in preparation for a Nasdaq listing. The filing shows revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of this year and a net loss of $80.7 billion, most of which came from accounting charges related to financing instruments. The filing also lists compute agreements under which, once fully delivered, it will pay SpaceX about $3.1 billion per month for the use of Nvidia GPUs, with total related spending reaching up to $120.5 billion through 2029.

    Why read thisThe S-1 filing discloses Anthropic's revenue, losses, and scale of compute spending, which can be used to assess its financial structure ahead of the listing.

  1. English text is being prepared.Model releases
    AI score90

    Moonshot AI Releases Kimi K3.1 Pro: 3 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Coding Agent Benchmarks Surpass GPT-6 Astra

    Moonshot AI officially launched K3.1 Pro, the first model in the Kimi K3.1 series. It is a 3-trillion-parameter model supporting a 1-million-token context, and a Highspeed version with roughly 2–3x the output speed is being released alongside it. On Terminal-Bench 4.0, K3.1 Pro scored 65.7%, surpassing GPT-6 Astra's 58.2% and coming close to Claude Opus 5.5's 66.4%; on OfficeQA Pro v2 it scored 64.4%, achieving the current best. Starting today, it is available via kimi.com, the Kimi App, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API. The full model weights will be released by November 4. API input pricing is 1.3 yuan per million tokens (cache hit) and 13 yuan (cache miss), with output at 68 yuan.

    Why read thisThe original article lists K3.1 Pro's specific scores on coding agent, 3D modeling, and financial benchmarks, along with API pricing, which can be used to gauge where its capabilities stand.

  2. English text is being prepared.
    AI score76

    OpenAI announces it will no longer let models train with direct access to the real internet

    OpenAI announced that it will henceforth train models using cached web content and simulated internet environments, no longer letting models connect directly to the real internet, on the grounds that model behavior remains difficult to predict and direct internet access poses safety risks. OpenAI disclosed that until September 20, a frontier model still had internet access due to a system configuration error, after which it suspended training work for the remainder of September. Competitor Anthropic also began restricting direct internet access for its latest models two weeks ago.

    Why read thisOpenAI and Anthropic have successively tightened model internet access permissions, from which readers can see the practical trade-offs frontier labs make on training safety.

  1. IT Home · Artificial IntelligenceProduct release
    AI score79

    OpenAI fully opens its decision API, based on GPT-6 Luna, at $0.1 per million input tokens

    OpenAI announced the full opening of the Decisions API, which is built on GPT-6 Luna and is aimed at questions with bounded answers, helping applications and agents make near-real-time decisions based on text, images, and structured inputs, with response speeds up to 10 times faster than calling GPT-6 Luna through the Responses API. On pricing, input is charged at $0.1 per million tokens, cached input hits are charged at $0.01 per million tokens, and billing is based only on input tokens, with output tokens free. Since the public beta, native GPT-Live integration, Prompt caching, and inference data residency support in the United States and the European Union have been added, and up to 400 questions can be submitted per request.

    Why read thisThe original text gives the pricing, latency improvements, and input limit changes of the decision API, so readers can use this to judge which near-real-time decision scenarios it suits.

  1. 404 Media
    AI score68

    ICRC warns AI is amplifying the devastation of war and calls for limits

    Laurent Gisel, head of the ICRC's legal warfare team, told 404 Media during a UN meeting that AI is already selecting targets on the battlefield and causing deaths, and is amplifying destruction, lawbreaking and humanitarian harm. He noted that AI accelerates target generation and the pace of strikes, making it hard for humans to maintain effective control, and argued for prohibiting AI-enabled systems that remove humans from the kill chain as well as autonomous weapons that directly target people. Gisel also mentioned that a draft treaty on autonomous weapons was weakened by Russia and the United States in September this year, and opposed allowing AI into nuclear command and control.

    Why read thisAn ICRC legal adviser, drawing on battlefield examples, explains the speed of autonomous weapons and the risks to human control, and identifies two categories of systems that should be prohibited.

  2. Tomasz Tunguz blogOpinion
    AI score67

    GPU revenue ladder: from DeepSeek's $38 to SpaceX's $2.44

    Tomasz Tunguz converts the inference data disclosed by DeepSeek and SpaceX's third-quarter financial report into the same basis, yielding four price points for revenue per GPU card-hour, from DeepSeek's theoretical maximum of $38 to SpaceX's actual $2.44. The B200 spot price is $8.77, the SpaceX contract price is $5.27, and the payback period for its new compute deployment is less than one year. The author also points out reverse pressure: GPU rent rose from $4.40 to $8.08 within half a year, while the cost of the equivalent benchmark threshold fell 377 times in 18 months, and JPMorgan says more than 60% of the data center capacity planned for 2027 has not yet started construction.

    Why read thisThe author converts DeepSeek's and SpaceX's data into revenue per card-hour on the same basis, so readers can understand the price space and cost pressure of the inference business.

  1. ChinaTalk
    AI score75

    China's Ministry of Commerce plans to include AI models in the export control catalog

    China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology issued Announcement No. 48 of 2026 on October 16, proposing to add 40 items to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export in China, of which 14 are prohibited from export and 26 are restricted from export, and to implement pre-export registration for all newly added technologies effective immediately. The draft sets three thresholds for frontier models: ≥10^26 FLOP, ≥2T parameters, or reaching a globally leading level, and also covers AI chip design, memory chips, ten-thousand-card-level clusters, agents, AIGC detection tools, training data, and cyber offense and defense capabilities; scenarios such as open source, self-built overseas data centers, and overseas tape-out may use the report-and-export channel. The public comment period runs until November 15.

    Why read thisBy sorting through the 40 newly added control items in the Ministry of Commerce's Draft Announcement No. 48 and comparing each item's thresholds against existing US rules, the boundaries and gaps of China's AI export controls become clear.