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AYi AI NotesUpdated Oct 31 20:12

X Product Lead Peter Sellis on Working Backwards and Killing Your Cash Cow

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X's new Product Lead Peter Sellis proposes using a "working backwards" approach for product planning: reasoning back from the future endgame rather than making linear patches on the existing business. Citing SpaceX's willingness to phase out its most profitable Falcon 9 and bet on Starship, he argues that top-tier companies dare to smash their own cash cows, while most companies would rather count money on a ship that is destined to sink.

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NVIDIA CEO and founder Jensen Huang publicly shared one of his highly counterintuitive daily habits in a CNN interview: He uses AI frantically every day, yet he feels his own brain has actually become sharper. Many people use AI in a way that is essentially performing a massive mental amputation on themselves— for example, having it polish an email, having it ghostwrite a summary, and when they hit a little knot that requires thinking, they casually push the keyboard over to the model and let it make the decision for them. Treating the tool as a crutch for laziness, the result after half a year is that their skills are all ruined, and they have completely degenerated into overgrown infants who cannot think without a chat box. But in the interview, Huang directly tore off this fig leaf. He said he never lets AI think for him; instead, he lets AI be his private tutor, to teach him entirely new fields he knows nothing about, or to gnaw on hard bones that mere personal experience simply cannot crack. Don't use it for things you could already do; use it to push open the high walls of cognition you originally could never cross. Most striking was the real CEO card Huang mentioned when Zakaria pressed him. He said that as the head of a chip empire worth trillions of dollars, 90% of his instructions every day are essentially not giving orders, but frantically asking high-quality questions to his team and to the model. Writing prompts for large models has never been some mechanical chore of typing in a few keywords; asking questions itself is an extremely mentally demanding top-tier cognitive skill. Here is a cruel, counterintuitive truth: AI is widening the wealth gap between two kinds of people at the speed of light. One kind of person outsources thinking to machines, saves half an hour of slacking off every day, and sees their cognition shrink across the board. The other kind of person outsources execution to machines, forces themselves to dig deep into real problems, and uses the world's top computing power every day to complete a brain remodeling. So let's stop asking whether AI will make people stupid. Tools have no moral preference. If you treat it as a wheelchair, you will become paralyzed; if you treat it as a lever, you can move an entire brain trust all by yourself.

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英伟达CEO兼创始人黄仁勋在CNN专访里公开了自己的一个极度反直觉的日常习惯: 他每天都在疯狂用 AI,但他觉得自己的大脑反而越来越聪明了。 很多人用 AI 的方式,本质上是在给自己搞脑力大截肢, 比如写个邮件让它润色,写个总结让它代笔,遇到一点需要动脑的死结,顺手就把键盘推给模型让它替自己下决定。 把工具当成偷懒的拐杖,结果用了半年,手艺全废了,自己彻底退化成了离了对话框就不会思考的巨婴。 但老黄在访谈里直接撕开了这层遮羞布, 他说他从来不让 AI 替自己思考, 他是让 AI 当自己的私教, 去教自己完全不懂的全新领域, 或者去啃那些靠肉身经验根本啃不动的硬骨头。 不要拿它去做你本来就能做的事,而是拿它去推开你原本根本跨不过去的认知高墙。 最狠的是扎卡利亚追问时,黄仁勋提到的那个做 CEO 的真实底牌。 他说作为掌管几万亿美元芯片帝国的掌门人,他每天 90% 的指令,本质上都不是在下命令,而是在疯狂向团队、向模型提出高质量的问题。 给大模型写提示词,从来不是什么输入几个关键词的机械杂活,提问本身就是一项极度消耗脑力的顶级认知技能。 这里有一个残酷的反直觉真相: AI 正在以光速拉开两类人的贫富差距。 一类人把思考外包给机器,每天省下半小时摸鱼,认知全面萎缩, 另一类人把执行外包给机器,逼着自己去深挖真问题,每天借着全球顶级的算力给自己完成一次大脑重塑。 所以咱们别再问 AI 会不会让人变笨了,工具没有任何道德偏好, 你把它当轮椅,你就会变成瘫子,你把它当杠杆,你就能一个人撬动一整个智囊团。

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X 新任产品负责人 Peter Sellis 不愧是当世最顶级的产品经理,他一句话就把硅谷最顶级的战略心法挑明了:看懂 SpaceX 为什么敢主动淘汰最赚钱的猎鹰 9 号,你就会明白为什么绝大多数公司的规划全是在慢性自杀。

Peter其实给我们掏出了一套极其残酷的产品逻辑:绝大多数平庸公司死于被对手干掉,而顶级公司全部死于不敢对自己开枪。

很多团队做业务规划,本质上是在做自欺欺人的线性推演。

看今年赚了多少钱,看手头有什么资源,然后小心翼翼地在现有的地盘上修修补补,生怕动了既得利益者的蛋糕。

这种顺推思维做出来的东西,往往就是更便宜的旧时代残次品。

但 Sellis 讲的倒推法,直接把时间轴倒了过来。

它绝不是从今天去猜明天,而是强行逼自己站在未来的终局往回看: 如果未来十年后人机交互的标配是轻量化智能眼镜,那我们今天就算把手机屏幕做烂也毫无意义,现在每一行代码都必须全部为那个终局服务。

最狠的是他把这套方法,直接对标到了 SpaceX 当年那个近乎自杀的疯狂决定上。

猎鹰 9 号明明是全人类商业航天史上最赚钱、发射成功率最高的王牌火箭,现金流好到可以躺着吃二十年;

但马斯克反手就要把它彻底淘汰,把全部身家性命押注在连炸了几次的 Starship 星舰上。

这就像当年科尔特斯率军登陆后亲手烧掉退路的战船一样,不给自己留一丝苟活的余地。

Sellis 感叹说,全世界几乎没有哪家大公司能做到 SpaceX 这种程度。

因为人性骨子里都在恋战舒适区,宁愿在一条注定沉没的大船上数钞票,也不愿意跳进冰水里去造下一艘核潜艇。

其实这里有一个极度冷酷的反直觉真相: 商业世界最危险的状态,从来不是你面临绝境,而是你手里正捧着一只利润丰厚的金饭碗。

敢亲手砸碎自己最赚钱的现金牛, 往往是在未来大浪打过来时,唯一能保住整条命的活路。

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