Goldman Sachs Says Hyperscale Data Center AI Investment to Peak in Q4, US Investment-Grade Bond Issuance Hits Record

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What signal? US companies are borrowing to a "new high" for AI, and Goldman Sachs judges that investment growth will peak in Q4!

Cailianshe Huang Junzhi, Editor Lin Qi, 2026-10-27 08:40

① Goldman Sachs expects that the year-on-year change in hyperscale data center investment as a share of US GDP is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, at about 1.5%; ② At the same time, the issuance scale of US investment-grade bonds this year is expected to set a historical record on Monday, surpassing the $1.75 trillion record set during the borrowing boom triggered by the pandemic in 2020.

Cailianshe, October 27 (Editor Huang Junzhi) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in the latest remarks that the growth of investment by hyperscale data centers in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to peak in the coming weeks.

Specifically, he pointed out that the year-on-year change in hyperscale data center investment as a share of US GDP is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, at about 1.5%.

The top hyperscale data center operators—Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and SpaceX—have invested record amounts of capital in AI infrastructure, and capital expenditure is expected to reach about $725 billion to $800 billion this year alone, an increase of 64% over 2025.

Alphabet and Microsoft will report earnings on Wednesday, while Amazon will report on Thursday, giving investors a glimpse of subsequent investment plans.

Companies accelerate borrowing

At the same time, the surge in AI investment is pushing companies to accelerate borrowing. According to reports, the issuance scale of US investment-grade bonds this year is expected to set a historical record on Monday, surpassing the $1.75 trillion record set during the borrowing boom triggered by the pandemic in 2020. According to data, after Monday's transactions are priced, the issuance scale so far this year will reach $1.76 trillion.

Many analysts had already expected that, driven by expectations of a sharp increase in spending in the AI field, this year's issuance scale would set an annual record. Since 2026, AI-related financing in the global high-grade bond market has exceeded $300 billion, nearly three times the full-year scale in 2025. This year, the United States has seen nine transactions with a single issuance scale of at least $25 billion; except for the financing by Skydance Corp. for an acquisition, all the others came from technology companies.

"We are witnessing one of the most capital-intensive corporate cycles in decades," said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Goldman Sachs predicts that under an optimistic scenario, the wealth effect brought by AI investment will cause AI-related stocks to rise 55%, other stocks to rise 20%, and the broad market to rise 30%, and the wealth effect will boost consumption growth by 0.7 percentage points. But under a pessimistic scenario (AI stocks fall 40%, other stocks fall 15%, and the broad market falls 20%), the wealth effect will drag down consumption growth by 0.3 percentage points.

AI investment is transmitted through the path of "stock market rise → household wealth increase → consumption expenditure increase." In a previous report, the bank wrote that over the past two years, the wealth effect has boosted consumption growth by about 0.3 percentage points per year on average, of which about 0.2 percentage points can be attributed to returns on AI-related stocks. Over the next year, it is expected to boost it by 0.4 percentage points, mainly driven by the strong performance of AI stocks.

Shi Nande, president of Goldman Sachs Group for Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), previously warned that the wealth effect brought by the rise in the AI sector in the stock market is driving consumption, but this also means that once the market corrects, it will immediately be transmitted to US consumption through the wealth effect, which is also one of the biggest financial risks currently concerning global financiers.

Hatzius previously pointed out that the contribution of AI investment to US GDP growth in 2025 is "basically zero," mainly because a large amount of hardware relies on imports, which is offset by import deductions in GDP accounting. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the data center investment boom ends, it may cause the US GDP level to fall by about 2 percentage points.

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Foreign Institutional Views - United States

Cailianshe Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this.

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