Anthropic report projects AI could push US unemployment rate close to 12%, industry disputes the logic

Cailianshe Financial News Agency

Open APP

Anthropic predicts AI could push US unemployment rate close to 12% in extreme scenario, but industry remains divided

Cailianshe Li Ying, Editor Lin Qi 2026-10-23 17:58

①In a September report, Anthropic modeled an extreme scenario: AI could push the US unemployment rate close to 12% by 2030; ②One economic research team estimates that about 26% of the US workforce faces disruption, with white-collar jobs such as financial professionals bearing the brunt; ③However, how much of an impact AI can actually have on employment is still subject to multiple uncertainties, including AI's own capability shortcomings and the direction of policy.

Cailianshe, October 23 (Editor Li Ying) — Anthropic recently modeled that, with the large-scale adoption of AI, the US unemployment rate could approach 12% in an extreme scenario. However, whether this extreme scenario can become reality remains disputed.

According to media reports on October 23 local time, a report released by Anthropic in September this year modeled the impact of AI on the US economy and depicted an extreme scenario: with large-scale AI adoption, by 2030, US GDP would surge, and the share of capital income in national income would rise from about 40% to nearly 55%.

The report noted that in this scenario, the "pie" going to workers would continue to shrink, a large number of jobs would be replaced by AI, and the US unemployment rate would rise to close to 12%.

For reference, the US unemployment rate typically remains around 4% to 5% when the economy is operating normally, while during the Great Depression of the 1930s it was generally above 15%, peaking at about 25% in 1933.

US unemployment rate trend from 2000 to present, source: TradingView

However, the logic of the report's modeling itself has been questioned. Macro economist Tom Orlik and others pointed out that, from the perspective of economic history, simultaneous surges in growth and unemployment are unrealistic. If everyone is unemployed, who will buy the additional output?

Even if the extreme scenario does not necessarily come true, the risk of AI causing mass unemployment still cannot be ignored. According to reports, one relevant economic research team, based on the share of tasks in each occupation where AI can play a substantive role, estimates that about 26% of the US workforce (about 45 million people) faces disruption.

The team estimates that, excluding the Chinese market, the global revenue scale of knowledge-based work is about $30 trillion, which is precisely the market that AI companies, including Anthropic, are competing for.

According to reports, market investors expect Anthropic's annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year. Even if it grows to $1 trillion in the future, that would still be only about 3% of the labor income scale of the aforementioned knowledge-based work. In other words, for AI companies, a large portion of white-collar jobs can still be taken over by AI, and the market space is considerable.

It is worth noting that job replacement does not happen overnight. AI researchers often use the "jagged frontier" to describe the unevenness of model capabilities: AI performs outstandingly in areas such as programming, but is clearly inferior in tasks where results are difficult to verify or that require interaction with the physical world. This capability shortcoming both slows the pace of replacement and limits the profit space of AI companies.

Global Market Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence

Cailianshe statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on it do so at their own risk.

Business cooperation

Popular unlocks

①A table selecting the quality information compiled this week, with multiple popular companies in fields such as physical AI, robotics, and data elements making the list. The stock price of a popular company nearly doubled this week; ②The robotics concept remains active, and the column tracks domestic and international industry developments, mentioning that two focus companies in the sector both hit the daily limit; ③The approval of the establishment of the National Data Group catalyzed a rise in the sector, and the column interpreted policy from an institutional perspective, mentioning that related companies hit the daily limit.

[Telegram Interpretation Weekly Review] Don't just focus on dexterous hands—these areas may be the next low-lying areas to be "snapped up" by capital! Watch "Popular Information" to capture the scarce links where industrial logic and capital signals resonate

①Anchor to the core hardware mainline of humanoid robots and capture breakthrough targets in dexterous hands! Is Ta2's consecutive limit-up just an appetizer? ②Penetrate the upstream data elements of humanoid robots and capture the core popular targets of embodied intelligence! This company rose as much as over 37% in 3 days; ③A wave of limit-ups! Anchor to real-machine data infrastructure and capture popular targets in upstream hardware for embodied intelligence—they are being "snapped up" by capital.

[Intraday Treasure] Amount exceeds 30 billion, the industry's tendering exceeds expectations, and as subsequent engineering construction continues to advance, it is expected to drive industrial investment to gradually transform into equipment orders. This enterprise's net profit in the third quarter increased by 30% year-on-year

Amount exceeds 30 billion, the industry's tendering exceeds expectations, and as subsequent engineering construction continues to advance, it is expected to drive industrial investment to gradually transform into equipment orders. This enterprise's net profit in the third quarter increased by 30% year-on-year, benefiting from the upward trend in industry prosperity.

Related reading

Musk gives generously for midterm elections, donating more than $445 million to Republican campaign!

Cailianshe Zhou Ziyi 2026-10-23 14:54

①The latest filing documents from the US Federal Election Commission show that Musk's total political donations in this election cycle exceeded $445 million; ②Musk's donations further consolidated the Republican Party's advantage in fundraising.

Cailianshe Xiaoxiang 2026-10-23 14:28

①The turmoil in the AI sector also appears to have sharply increased the likelihood of this possibility: the Federal Reserve may not dare to raise interest rates again this year? ②The bond market is also undergoing a dramatic repricing: the 2-year US Treasury yield plunged 18 basis points on Thursday to 4.64%.

"Energy storage wonder stock" earnings report shows mixed results: four consecutive quarters of better-than-expected performance, but high capital expenditure frightens the market

Cailianshe Liu Rui 2026-10-23 13:08

①In the third quarter ended September, the company's revenue was $1.24 billion, surging 138% from the same period last year; ②Capital expenditure for the quarter was $153 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of $181 million for the quarter; ③The company's stock price fell 6.86% after hours.