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East MoneyUpdated Oct 25 18:23

CITIC Securities: AI momentum pullback is not the dividing line between bull and bear markets

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A CITIC Securities research report argues that the AI trend pullback is not the start of a bear market, and that non-AI sectors may instead face a more favorable environment, because in the short term the AI industry has produced negative externalities for other economic sectors such as sharp rises in materials and resource prices, surging interest rates, and crowding out of employment. The report judges that the main process of second-derivative valuation correction in AI sectors and valuation contraction in non-AI sectors is expected to be completed this year, with a higher probability afterward of narrowing divergence and broadening market breadth, but capital-side clearing will take time; at this stage, stable-return strategies represented by PB-ROE may be more advantageous.

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中信证券研报称,AI趋势回落并非熊市开端,非AI可能反而会面临更为有利的环境,核心是AI产业在短期内并不像过往的产业趋势对经济体的其他部门产生广泛的拉动作用,反而对其他经济部门产生了不少负外部性(物料和资源价格暴涨、利率飙升、就业挤出)。这也意味着,过往“产业趋势行情结束=牛转熊”的经验可能不再适用,非AI的不少板块早已步入下行趋势。目前,无论是AI板块的二阶导估值修正还是非AI板块的估值收缩,主要估值收缩进程都有望在今年完成,往未来看,经历深度调整后,分化逐步收敛、行情宽度拓展的概率更高。唯一的问题是资金面的出清需要时间,在这个阶段以PB-ROE为代表的稳健回报型策略可能更加占优。

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East Money