HARC Report: Surge in Texas AI Data Centers Could Set Air Pollution Back by Decades

This report was released by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) and focuses on analyzing the potential air quality impacts of data center expansion in Texas. The researchers point out that data centers need to continuously supply power to large numbers of servers and must also run cooling systems to prevent high-performance computing equipment from overheating. As the power consumption and heat dissipation demands of AI chips continue to rise, the electricity demand of data centers is also growing rapidly.

The key issue is not only how much electricity is needed, but also how that electricity will be produced. If all planned data center projects are connected to the Texas power grid as expected and supplied by the projected future electricity mix, related pollutant emissions could increase significantly. The research report argues that under this scenario, just five years could offset part of Texas's decades of progress in improving air quality.

The report predicts that if development proceeds according to the above scenario, fine particulate matter pollution generated by Texas's power sector, commonly known as soot, could increase to more than three times current levels, reaching the highest level since 2006. Emissions of smog-forming nitrogen oxides could rise by 136%, approaching 2004 levels. At the same time, carbon dioxide emissions linked to climate warming could increase by 90% compared with 2025.

However, these figures do not mean that pollution will necessarily rise by the same magnitude. The research team modeled future emissions based on three different forecasts of data center electricity demand. Some proposed projects are still in the planning stage and may ultimately not proceed; data center developers could also reduce reliance on fossil fuels by building solar and wind power facilities. Therefore, the ultimate environmental impact still depends on the actual scale of project construction, the sources of electricity, and related policy arrangements.

The report particularly notes that the way data centers are powered could cause enormous differences in pollution. If grid electricity is used and on-site renewable energy facilities are built alongside it, nitrogen oxide emissions could be reduced by up to about 90% compared with a plan relying entirely on combustion-based power generation. Conversely, if developers choose to deploy natural gas engines or gas turbines directly on campus to bypass grid interconnection waiting times, pollution emissions could increase further.

Texas has already become one of the largest major data center markets in the United States. Measured by data center capacity, the state's existing and under-construction capacity totals about 26 gigawatts. In addition, Texas has a large number of planned on-site power generation projects. Reports previously published by market research institutions show that the capacity of proposed data centers in Texas using on-site power generation is far higher than in other states.

The reason data center developers are increasingly considering self-generation is closely related to long waiting times for grid interconnection. Large data centers require stable and continuous power supply, but new grid connections often involve power facility construction, transmission capacity assessments, and approval processes, with waiting times that can last for years. For companies hoping to begin operations as soon as possible, building their own power generation facilities has become an option for shortening project construction timelines.

However, on-site power generation is not necessarily more environmentally friendly. The researchers point out that some developers, in order to obtain electricity as quickly as possible, tend to use natural gas engines or gas turbines that can be built faster, rather than waiting for grid expansion or investing in supporting renewable energy facilities. Although this choice may accelerate data center commissioning, it could bring higher pollution emissions.

Carlos Gamarra, Vice President of HARC's Energy, Air Quality and Information Technology Division, said that the real problem facing data center developers is that waiting for grid interconnection may take three to five years, and companies are usually unwilling to wait that long, so they consider building on-site power generation systems. But under time pressure, developers do not always choose lower-pollution options.

The study also found that even with relatively clean power supply methods, the rapid expansion of the data center industry itself could still drive up emissions. The report predicts that under a cleaner scenario dominated by grid electricity and supplemented by on-site wind and solar power, statewide nitrogen oxide emissions in Texas could still increase by 35% by 2031. If new data centers mainly rely on on-site natural gas power generation, the increase in nitrogen oxide emissions could approach 400%.

Nitrogen oxides are important precursor pollutants for the formation of ground-level ozone and photochemical smog. Long-term exposure may damage the human respiratory system and increase the risk of chronic respiratory diseases. Fine particulate matter can penetrate deep into the lungs, and some particles can even enter the bloodstream, and is associated with asthma attacks, cardiovascular problems, and other health risks.

Texas itself already faces certain air quality pressures. Major cities such as Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin frequently have to deal with challenges posed by federal air pollution standards. Transportation emissions, high summer temperatures, and industrial activity are all important factors in local air quality problems. If new data centers further increase power generation emissions, the affected areas could face greater environmental governance pressure.

The researchers believe that Texas's ability to reduce a variety of major air pollutants over the past two decades is closely related to changes in the electricity mix, the development of wind and solar power, the retirement of coal-fired power facilities, and the implementation of pollution control measures in the industrial, transportation, and power generation sectors. Today, the additional electricity demand brought by data centers may pose new challenges to these achievements.

HARC CEO John Hall said that over the past decades, transportation departments, state governments and other relevant parties have worked continuously to reduce pollution emissions, but the current data center construction boom could put those gains at risk. He warned that if the trend is left unchecked, future generations may have to breathe dirtier air than people do today.

On how to reduce the risks, the researchers recommend treating data centers as industrial facilities with significant energy and environmental impacts and requiring them to comply with corresponding power generation and industrial emissions standards. Developers should choose clean energy wherever possible, meet existing pollution control requirements, and publicly disclose data centers' electricity consumption, power sources and pollution emissions, so that local communities can assess potential impacts before projects are approved or built.

At the same time, electricity supply planning also needs to pay more attention to the long-term demand brought by data center expansion. Relying solely on natural gas generation may meet some projects' immediate power needs more quickly, but if a large number of projects take the same approach, cumulative emissions could have a significant impact. Expanding renewable energy supply, improving grid access capacity, and effectively regulating on-site generation facilities may make it possible to meet the development needs of the AI industry while reducing air pollution risks.

The report does not assert that Texas air quality is bound to regress to early-2000s levels; rather, it uses different power supply scenarios to show possible future outcomes. The researchers stress that the ultimate direction still depends on whether data center projects actually materialize and on how developers, energy companies and governments make choices.

As demand for AI computing power continues to grow, data centers are no longer just back-office facilities in the internet industry; they are becoming an important factor affecting energy systems, industrial emissions and local environments. How to control pollution while building AI infrastructure will become a long-term challenge that Texas and other regions with rapid data center expansion must face.