Goldman Sachs: AI Computing Power Capex Growth Is About to Peak; Under the Optimistic Scenario, the Broad Market Could Rise 30%
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that investment growth by hyperscale data centers in AI is expected to peak in the coming weeks, and the year-over-year change in their investment as a share of U.S. GDP is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 at about 1.5%. Operators such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are expected to spend about $725 billion to $800 billion on AI infrastructure capex this year, up 64% from 2025. Goldman Sachs forecasts that under the optimistic scenario, AI-related stocks will rise 55% and the broad market will rise 30%; under the pessimistic scenario, the broad market will fall 20%; if the data center investment boom ends, the U.S. GDP level could decline by about 2 percentage points.
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Goldman Sachs provides the timing of peak AI capex and the stock market and consumption impacts under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, which can serve as a reference for judging the AI investment cycle.
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On October 27, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an update that the growth of investment by hyperscale data centers in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to peak in the coming weeks. He pointed out that the year-on-year change in hyperscale data center investment as a share of U.S. GDP is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, at about 1.5%.
Hyperscale data center operators—Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and SpaceX—have invested record amounts of capital in AI infrastructure, and capital expenditure is expected to reach about $725 billion to $800 billion this year alone, an increase of 64% over 2025.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that under an optimistic scenario, the wealth effect brought by AI investment will cause AI-related stocks to rise 55%, other stocks to rise 20%, and the broad market to rise 30% overall, with the wealth effect boosting consumption growth by 0.7 percentage points. But under a pessimistic scenario (AI stocks fall 40%, other stocks fall 15%, and the broad market falls 20%), the wealth effect will drag on consumption growth by 0.3 percentage points.
Hatzius previously pointed out that the contribution of AI investment to U.S. GDP growth in 2025 is "basically zero," mainly because a large amount of hardware relies on imports, which is offset by imports in GDP accounting. Goldman Sachs forecasts that if the data center investment boom ends, it could reduce the level of U.S. GDP by about 2 percentage points.
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