Goldman Sachs: AI Computing Power Capex Growth Is About to Peak; Under the Optimistic Scenario, the Broad Market Could Rise 30%
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Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that investment growth by hyperscale data centers in AI is expected to peak in the coming weeks, and the year-over-year change in their investment as a share of U.S. GDP is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 at about 1.5%. Operators such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle are expected to spend about $725 billion to $800 billion on AI infrastructure capex this year, up 64% from 2025. Goldman Sachs forecasts that under the optimistic scenario, AI-related stocks will rise 55% and the broad market will rise 30%; under the pessimistic scenario, the broad market will fall 20%; if the data center investment boom ends, the U.S. GDP level could decline by about 2 percentage points.
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Goldman Sachs provides the timing of peak AI capex and the stock market and consumption impacts under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, which can serve as a reference for judging the AI investment cycle.
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10月27日，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius最新表示，超大规模数据中心在人工智能（AI）领域的投资增长预计将在未来几周达到峰值。他指出，超大规模数据中心投资占美国GDP的同比变化预计将在2026年第四季度达到峰值，约为1.5%。
超大规模数据中心运营商——亚马逊、微软、Alphabet、Meta Platforms、甲骨文和SpaceX——在人工智能基础设施方面投入了创纪录的资金，预计仅今年一年，资本支出就将达到约7250亿至8000亿美元，比2025年增长64%。
高盛预测，在乐观情境下，AI投资所带来的财富效应，将使AI相关股票上涨55%、其他股票上涨20%，大盘整体涨30%，财富效应将提振消费增速0.7个百分点。但在悲观情景下（AI股跌40%、其他股跌15%、大盘跌20%），财富效应将对消费增速构成0.3个百分点的拖累。
Hatzius此前则指出，AI投资对2025年美国GDP增长的贡献“基本为零”，主要原因是大量硬件依赖进口，在GDP核算中被进口抵扣抵消。高盛预测，若数据中心投资热潮结束，可能会使美国GDP水平下降约2个百分点。
（文章来源：财闻） 正文中部 内嵌广告