Humanoid robot stocks surge, but Unitree is the first to pour cold water on the industry

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Event Search Project Recommendations I Want to Join City Partners Humanoid Robot Stocks Race Ahead, but Unitree Is First to Pour a Bucket of Cold Water on the Industry Alpha Works · October 21, 2026 08:51 This announcement came at just the right time.

On October 19, Unitree Technology's stock price surged 16.15%; on October 20, it rose another 6.07% to close at 526.03 yuan, and its total market value returned above 210 billion yuan. In just a few trading days, market sentiment heated up rapidly.

At the same time, the company also clearly stated that its operations are normal and that there is no major information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed.

On one side is the capital market's enthusiasm for humanoid robots; on the other is the company's cautious reminder about the pace of commercialization. The two attitudes are not contradictory, but they reveal the question most worth discussing in this industry right now: robots can already complete increasingly complex movements, but how far are they from becoming a business that can make money at scale?

Unitree Technology's stock price trend has already gone through a round of dramatic expectation shifts.

On August 19, 2026, Unitree Technology listed on the STAR Market at an issue price of 150.80 yuan per share, and on its first day of trading the stock price once surged to 1,100 yuan. After that, the stock price continued to fall, hitting an intraday low of 404.03 yuan on October 15. By October 19, the stock price suddenly surged 16.15%, and on October 20 it continued to rise, regaining a market value of 210 billion yuan.

From the first-day high of 1,100 yuan to the stage low on October 15, the stock price pulled back more than 60%; then, over the following three trading days, the cumulative deviation of the increase exceeded 30%.

This trajectory reflects two ways the market prices the humanoid robot industry.

The first pricing approach focuses on the company's current operating performance. How much revenue has grown, how thick profits are, to whom products are sold, and whether customers continue to purchase—these indicators determine the current quality of the company's operations.

The second pricing approach focuses on future industry space. If humanoid robots can enter factories, warehouses, commercial services, and even homes, the market size could far exceed today's. Companies with capabilities in motion control, hardware R&D, mass production, and cost control have the opportunity to grow from robot manufacturers into general-purpose robot platform companies.

Unitree Technology clearly has both layers of value. The company has already achieved scaled sales and profitability, established product and cost advantages in the quadruped robot field, and its humanoid robot business is also growing rapidly. It is not hard to understand why the capital market is willing to pay a premium for these capabilities.

The question is: how large is the future market space, and how much time will the company need to turn it into revenue and profit?

As of October 20, Unitree Technology's trailing price-to-earnings ratio was 388.25 times, while the average trailing price-to-earnings ratio of the general equipment manufacturing industry over the past month was 39.51 times. The two differ in growth stage and business structure, so it is not possible to judge whether the stock price is reasonable based on the P/E multiple alone. However, these figures at least show that the current stock price already contains fairly high growth expectations.

If the humanoid robot market expands rapidly in the coming years and Unitree Technology can continue to increase shipments, expand its customer base, and maintain profitability, then today's high valuation may have a chance to be gradually digested through performance growth.

Conversely, if commercialization progresses slower than expected, even if the company remains technologically leading, the stock price may come under pressure before the operating fundamentals do.

The market trades the future, but financial reports test whether the future can arrive on time. This is precisely the core of Unitree Technology's risk warning this time.

02

Who are the main buyers?

To discuss the commercialization of humanoid robots, we must first separate two questions: whether robots have sales, and what kind of demand those sales come from.

In terms of revenue scale, Unitree Technology has already moved past the stage of relying solely on technology demonstrations.

According to data disclosed in the company's prospectus, from 2023 to 2025, the company's operating revenue was approximately 159 million yuan, 393 million yuan, and 1.699 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 was approximately 278 million yuan. The company's revenue scale has expanded rapidly, and it already has a profit foundation.

Humanoid robots are a business worth watching in this round of growth.

From January to September 2025, Unitree Technology's humanoid robot revenue was approximately 595 million yuan, accounting for 51.53% of the company's operating revenue during the same period, surpassing quadruped robots for the first time and becoming one of its main sources of revenue.

But further breaking down customer uses reveals another picture.

Scientific research and education contributed more than 70% of humanoid robot revenue. This type of demand has its rationale: universities, research institutions, and developers need hardware platforms for motion control, embodied intelligence, and algorithm training, so robots that can be delivered quickly and are relatively affordable naturally have appeal.

These customers are also driving industry progress. After robots enter laboratories, developers can accumulate motion data, develop applications, and continuously improve control algorithms, laying the foundation for more complex scenarios in the future.

However, procurement for scientific research and education and large-scale enterprise deployment follow two different business logics.

The former values hardware performance, development convenience, and experimental value; the latter also examines whether the robot can continuously complete work tasks, whether it can integrate into existing production processes, and whether the input-output ratio is cost-effective.

For example, when a factory purchases robots, it typically calculates the comprehensive costs of equipment procurement, system integration, maintenance, and downtime losses, and compares them with the costs of manual labor or traditional automation equipment. There is still a long way to go between a robot completing a single demonstration or performing a standardized action and stably completing production tasks for several consecutive months.

Therefore, the fact that humanoid robots account for more than half of Unitree Technology's revenue is an important commercial progress; scientific research and education still account for the main share, which also shows that there is still considerable room for expansion in industry applications.

What is more noteworthy is whether revenue growth can gradually extend from hardware sales to stable scenario delivery and continuous procurement.

03

Entering another competition

There is another issue in the humanoid robot industry that is easily overlooked: products are becoming cheaper, which may both expand the market and change companies' profit structures.

Data disclosed in Unitree Technology's prospectus shows that from January to September 2025, the company's humanoid robot gross margin was 62.91%, lower than 68.44% in 2024. During the same period, the share of the lower-priced G1 model in the company's humanoid robot sales increased significantly.

A decline in gross margin does not necessarily mean deteriorating operations. More cost-effective products may cover a broader customer base, and expanded sales may also bring economies of scale.

But this set of data reveals a change that requires continuous observation: as robots gradually move from high-priced R&D equipment to larger-scale sales, companies need to solve three problems at the same time: cost, performance, and profit.

If price declines mainly come from lower component costs, improved manufacturing efficiency, and large-scale production, companies still have a chance to maintain good profitability.

If prices fall faster than costs, or if companies need to continuously invest R&D and service resources to maintain competitiveness, then sales growth may not bring profit growth of the same magnitude.

Disclosures from other companies in the industry can also help understand the stage of commercialization.

Take CloudMinds as an example. The company's updated prospectus shows that in the first half of 2026, it sold a total of 6 humanoid robots, with revenue of 2.79 million yuan, accounting for 1.08% of operating revenue during the same period. CloudMinds also stated that its humanoid robot business is still in the early stage of commercialization, and its shipment volume lags far behind companies such as Unitree Technology.

CloudMinds' product positioning and customer structure are not exactly the same as those of Unitree Technology, and this company's sales volume cannot be used to infer the entire industry. However, this case at least shows that humanoid robots still account for a relatively small share of the revenue structure of some companies, and there is a clear time lag between technology R&D and commercialization.

In the broader industry competition, the thresholds companies need to cross also include:

Stability. Whether the robot can work continuously in complex environments and recover quickly after a failure.

Task completion rate. Whether the robot can reliably complete an entire workflow in real scenarios, rather than a single action.

Comprehensive cost. Whether the total of equipment, software, deployment, maintenance, and downtime losses is better than existing solutions.

Customer repurchase. After the first batch of equipment is delivered, whether customers are willing to expand procurement and whether companies can obtain sustainable orders.

These indicators determine whether robots can move from pilot projects to large-scale deployment, and also determine whether hardware sales can further drive software, system integration, and service revenue.

For Unitree Technology, its existing product sales, manufacturing capabilities, and profit foundation provide competitive advantages. Next, whether industry application revenue can increase, whether product costs can continue to decline, and whether customer demand can shift from one-time procurement to continuous deployment will better reflect its commercialization progress.

04

The bubble is being squeezed out bit by bit by financial reports

Unitree Technology's announcement this time gives the market an opportunity to re-examine the investment logic of humanoid robots.

In the past, the industry's focus was on technological breakthroughs, motion capabilities, and product launches. As more and more companies enter this field, competition will gradually shift to product delivery, scenario adaptation, and operational efficiency.

For investors, at least four sets of data are worth tracking next.

First, revenue structure. In addition to the growth of humanoid robot revenue, it is also necessary to observe changes in the share of scientific research and education, commercial consumption, and industry applications. Continued growth in industry application revenue can help determine whether products are entering more real business processes.

Second, shipment volume and customer quality. Shipment volume reflects market acceptance, while customer repurchases, order continuity, and actual usage help determine the stability of demand.

Third, gross margin and cost. If, as sales increase, the pace of cost decline can keep up with price changes, companies will have an opportunity to turn scale advantages into profitability. Conversely, simply pursuing shipment volume may increase operating pressure.

Fourth, R&D investment and cash flow. Embodied intelligence is still in a stage of rapid iteration, and companies need to continuously invest in hardware, algorithms, and software. Whether R&D spending creates product competitiveness, and whether operating cash flow can support expansion, will affect the quality of companies' long-term development.

These indicators explain commercialization progress better than a single demonstration effect or short-term stock price performance.

Humanoid robots still have broad application imagination space. As hardware costs decline, model capabilities improve, and development tools mature, robots are expected to enter more scenarios that were previously difficult to automate. Unitree Technology has already proven that Chinese companies can establish competitive advantages in robot hardware R&D, product iteration, and large-scale sales.

The next test is turning that advantage into repeatable, scalable commercial returns.

Unitree Technology has not denied the industry prospects of humanoid robots. It reminds the market that technological maturity, demand formation, and large-scale commercialization each require their own timelines.

Stock prices can trade future growth potential in advance, but companies still need to prove through every financial report that this growth expectation is becoming reality.

This article comes from the WeChat public account "Alpha Works Research Institute," author: Nandi, published by 36Kr with authorization.

The views in this article represent only the author personally; the 36Kr platform only provides information storage space services.+15

Good articles need your encouragement. Alpha Works guest author 0 Favorites +10 Comments Open WeChat "Scan" to open the webpage, then click the share button in the upper right corner of the screen. Weibo Immersive reading Back to top Report Join the comments. Millions of comments, friendliness first. Log in to join the discussion. Submit comment 0/1000 You may also like these articles. Rural auntie acts as a "mentor" for robots. DJI / Insta360 / Qiyuan / Xunying increase investment in AI imaging. A robot that can't take photos isn't good embodied intelligence? Post-00s entrepreneurs build robots, the youngest is 22. Commercial performance rental prices plummet by 90%. Unitree and others increase investment overseas, and robots seek a bigger stage. Do robots and artificial intelligence need to pay social insurance? The first batch of robot unicorns begins lining up for bankruptcy. Is embodied intelligence financing cooling? In August they were still competing to invest; by October even FAs were saying listings are temporarily suspended. Just now, the world's first robot brain API opened. NVIDIA DreamZero team starts a business, Ge Yunhao serves as CTO. Tsinghua Yao Class, Harvard top student, let robots write code and practice skills themselves. Finally, no need to lead them by hand. Alpha Works guest author

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