Big Short investor Eisman questions Anthropic's IPO prospectus for not disclosing Q3 data

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Anthropic's growth slowing? On the eve of an epic IPO, the Big Short investor strikes: it deliberately withheld Q3 data

Cailian Press Bian Chun | Editor: Lin Qi 2026-10-30 12:54

① On Wednesday, big short seller Steve Eisman took direct aim at Anthropic, at a critical moment as the latter is about to go public; ② Eisman accused Anthropic of deliberately withholding third-quarter financial data in its IPO prospectus. He believes the updated data could expose a sharp slowdown in growth at this AI giant.

Cailian Press, October 30 (Editor: Bian Chun) — On Wednesday, big short seller Steve Eisman took direct aim at leading U.S. AI lab Anthropic, at a critical moment as the latter is about to go public.

Eisman is one of the real-life figures behind the film "The Big Short." At the time, as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, he made his name by shorting subprime mortgages before the global financial crisis erupted.

On a podcast Wednesday, Eisman accused Anthropic of deliberately withholding third-quarter financial data in its IPO prospectus. He believes the updated data could expose a sharp slowdown in growth at this AI giant.

Eisman questioned why the company's prospectus, filed on October 26, disclosed financial data only through June. There are signs that Anthropic's business growth momentum has weakened since then.

Asked whether the omission was intentional, Eisman replied: "Absolutely deliberate."

Eisman cited two sets of data indicating that Anthropic's stunning growth in the first half may be difficult to sustain.

According to recent media reports, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue was $16.8 billion, up 45%, a sharp slowdown from the 144% growth rate in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Eisman said, for every $1 Anthropic spent on compute and infrastructure costs in the third quarter, it generated only $1.70 in revenue, down from $2.08 in the second quarter, a decline of 18%.

Eisman blamed the slowdown on the end of the "tokenmaxing" era, a period when companies encouraged software engineers to use AI heavily, often regardless of cost.

Eisman said Anthropic's prospectus is "very, very stale," arguing that it reflects the company's situation at the peak of the AI spending frenzy.

Given Anthropic's massive future infrastructure obligations, the shift in its input-output equation could be dangerous. Eisman estimates that the company's potential compute spending commitments amount to as much as $800 billion to $900 billion.

Eisman questioned whether Anthropic has a durable competitive advantage, warning that a company forced to compete mainly on price will struggle to support such massive payment commitments.

Asked whether he would invest in Anthropic, his answer was unequivocal: "No."

On the prediction platform Polymarket, traders see about a 56% probability that Anthropic's IPO valuation will fall between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion, with another 38% expecting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.

According to media reports, Anthropic has disclosed some third-quarter performance metrics to potential investors, including adjusted profitability.

Under SEC rules on the timeliness of financial statements, Anthropic's June data will expire after November 12. If the IPO process runs later than that date, third-quarter financial statements would typically need to be filed.

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Cailian Press statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on it do so at their own risk.

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