IDC predicts that by 2028, enterprises will run 60% of AI workloads on open-source models

IDC predicts: Enterprises will run 60% of AI workloads on open-source models by 2028

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The firm pointed out that enterprises will run 60% of their AI workloads on open-source models by 2028, and will use model routing strategies to reduce costs and hedge against vendor lock-in risk; companies that move faster will be the first to resolve the problem of overspending on agent inference.

Among Global 2000 (G2000) enterprises, 60% will achieve AI-first operation of most business processes by 2029, compared with only 13% today; by 2028, 70% of these giants will have the ability to continuously validate AI agent decisions.

G2000 enterprises that fail to establish an emergency stop switch for agents in production environments will face 25% higher liability insurance premiums and double the exposure to major audit issues by 2028. By 2028, 75% of G2000 enterprises will incorporate clauses on responsibility for autonomous agent behavior into technology supply contracts.

In terms of employment, G2000 enterprises will drive 30% of junior and mid-level execution roles to transition into roles related to AI agent supervision and orchestration by 2029. Among mid-market enterprises with 1,000 to 4,999 employees, about half expect the number of junior-position employees to increase in the next 18 months, while only 17% expect a decrease.

Reference

IDC FutureScape 2027 Predicts 60% of Enterprises Will Run a Majority of Their Business Processes AI-first by 2029, up from 13% in 2026

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