Weekly data highlights: SEMI expects the semiconductor market to reach $3 trillion by 2035; Q3 China smartphone shipments hit a 14-year low

1. SEMI CEO: Semiconductor industry scale sprinting toward $3 trillion by 2035

2. China smartphone market shipments in Q3 fall to lowest point in 14 years, Huawei ranks first

3. CAICT: Domestic mobile phone shipments in September 21.856 million units, down 21.7%

4. Global OLED shipments to reach 6.1 million units in 2026, surging 79%

5. Gartner issues inference paradox warning: Under token price-cutting wave, agent inference costs to rise more than fivefold by 2028

6. Plunge of 26%! India Q3 smartphone shipments hit 10-year low for the period

1. SEMI CEO: Semiconductor industry scale sprinting toward $3 trillion by 2035

As artificial intelligence and quantum computing drive demand growth, the global semiconductor industry is expected to reach a scale of $3 trillion around 2035. Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI, said during SEMICON West 2026 that the industry reaching a $2 trillion scale is already "entirely feasible."

Manocha noted that the semiconductor industry took about 50 years to grow to a $500 billion scale, but doubled from $500 billion to $1 trillion in the past five years. Against the backdrop of continuously expanding AI demand, another rapid growth phase for the industry is not impossible.

He said whether the $3 trillion mark can be reached exactly in 2035 still depends on multiple factors. Even if the target is slightly delayed, it is more likely to be achieved between 2037 and 2040 rather than requiring another wait of decades, provided that geopolitical tensions or major economic crises do not further fragment the global industrial ecosystem.

In addition, SEMI expects global semiconductor equipment sales to approach $166 billion in 2026 and reach $230 billion by 2028. Regarding whether the equipment supply chain can keep up with demand, Manocha said that as many as 102 fabs may be in operation by 2029, of which 82 are already under construction; after 2029, the market may need about 50 additional fabs.

He pointed out that as long as equipment manufacturers see clear returns on investment and confirmed orders, other parts of the industrial chain must follow suit. Although phased bottlenecks may occur during capacity expansion, the semiconductor industry has gone through multiple cycles and already possesses strong supply chain resilience.

2. China smartphone market shipments in Q3 fall to lowest point in 14 years, Huawei ranks first

Recently, market research firm Counterpoint Research stated in a report that China's smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 10% year-on-year, hitting the lowest third-quarter level since 2012. Because persistently rising memory prices significantly increased bill-of-materials costs and exacerbated supply shortages, the decline was larger in the second half of the year.

In terms of vendor performance, Huawei led China's smartphone market in the third quarter of 2026 with a 21.3% market share. Thanks to price stability at the beginning of the quarter, all Huawei product lines performed strongly. Strong sales of the entry-level Changxiang 90 Pro Max, the mid-range Nova 16 and the flagship Mate 80 helped Huawei's third-quarter shipments grow 19% year-on-year. However, Huawei officially raised prices on September 1, which may further affect its future sales; Apple ranked second in the third quarter with a 19.5% market share. The iPhone 18 Pro series performed strongly in the Chinese market, with sales in the first three weeks after launch up 23.5% year-on-year, far exceeding the iPhone 17 Pro series. The delayed launch of the base iPhone 18 may have prompted some consumers to upgrade to Pro models, thereby driving early sales growth for the Pro models.

3. CAICT: Domestic mobile phone shipments in September 21.856 million units, down 21.7%

On October 21, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) released its September 2026 domestic mobile phone market operation analysis report. Data showed that in September, domestic mobile phone shipments were 21.856 million units, down 21.7% year-on-year, of which 5G phones totaled 19.234 million units, down 20.2% year-on-year, accounting for 88.0% of mobile phone shipments during the same period.

The report showed that in September 2026, shipments of domestic-brand mobile phones were 18.203 million units, down 23.0% year-on-year, accounting for 83.3% of mobile phone shipments during the same period; 41 new domestic-brand models were launched, down 6.8% year-on-year, accounting for 91.1% of the new mobile phone models launched during the same period. From January to September 2026, shipments of domestic-brand mobile phones were 161 million units, down 16.1% year-on-year, accounting for 85.5% of mobile phone shipments during the same period; 265 new domestic-brand models were launched, down 29.9% year-on-year, accounting for 92.7% of the new mobile phone models launched during the same period.

In September 2026, domestic smartphone shipments were 19.739 million units, down 22.9% year-on-year, accounting for 90.3% of mobile phone shipments during the same period; 39 new smartphone models were launched, up 34.5% year-on-year, accounting for 86.7% of the new mobile phone models launched during the same period. From January to September 2026, domestic smartphone shipments were 176 million units, down 12.8% year-on-year, accounting for 93.2% of mobile phone shipments during the same period; 230 new smartphone models were launched, down 11.2% year-on-year, accounting for 80.4% of the new mobile phone models launched during the same period.

4. Global OLED shipments to reach 6.1 million units in 2026, surging 79%

On October 21, market research firm Omdia stated in a report that it expects full-year global OLED shipments in 2026 to reach 6.1 million units, up 79% from 2025. ASUS is expected to remain the largest buyer, accounting for 23% of full-year global shipments, followed by MSI, Samsung and AOC. LG Electronics, Dell, Acer and Lenovo round out the top eight. Intensifying competition among monitor brands and OLED capacity expansion are driving market growth. As more capacity is transferred and comes online, shipments are expected to reach 7.5 million units in 2027.

Omdia said Samsung Display and LG Display have long been the main suppliers of OLED monitor panels. TCL CSOT will introduce new competition in 2026 through its inkjet-printed OLED (IJP OLED) technology. Its G5.5 fab is scheduled to begin shipping 27-inch UHD 120Hz IJP OLED display panels for MSI's commercial-grade creator monitors in the third quarter of 2026. TCL CSOT's new Gen 8.6 IJP OLED fab is scheduled to start production at the end of 2027, with plans to produce larger panels, including 32-inch and 34-inch sizes, with refresh rates of up to 700Hz. The fab is expected to make TCL CSOT the first company to mass-produce IJP OLED monitor panels at a Gen 8.6 fab.

Nick Jiang, Principal Analyst for Displays and OEM research at Omdia, said: "Capacity expansion, falling prices and broader adoption by brands are helping OLED monitor panels reach a wider market. TCL CSOT's Gen 8.6 IJP OLED capacity is expected to reshape the dynamics and competitive landscape of the OLED monitor panel supply chain."

5. Gartner sounds the alarm on the inference paradox: Under the token price decline wave, agent inference costs will more than quintuple by 2028

Persistently falling token unit prices had led many enterprises to assume that total AI costs would decline accordingly. Gartner's latest forecast overturns that assumption: by 2028, the inference cost of each AI agent workflow will rise to more than 5 times the current level, while the tokens consumed by an agent to complete a task are 5-30 times those of a basic chatbot. Gartner has named this phenomenon the "Inference Paradox"—the better the unit economics, the higher the total AI cost, and there is no clear path to corresponding, predictable value. Cost governance is replacing model capability as the new dividing line in enterprise AI competition.

On August 17, Gartner released a formal forecast: by 2028, AI inference costs calculated per agent workflow will rise more than 5-fold. The paradox of this forecast lies in its premise—it is happening precisely against the backdrop of declining token unit prices. The large language model token expenditure index compiled by data provider Silicon Data (Bloomberg code SDLLMTK, which calculates the actual transaction prices of major global models weighted by usage) fell below the $1 per million tokens threshold for the first time in early September 2026, at $0.97, the lowest reading since the index was launched, a cumulative decline of more than 50% from its May 2026 high.

The divergence between unit price and total cost stems from changes in task structure. The core magnitudes Gartner provides are: compared with a basic chatbot interaction, routing a task to an agent inference model will raise the provider's inference cost by at least 5 times, and often far more as task complexity grows; on the same task, an AI agent consumes more than 5 times, and up to 30 times, the tokens per task of a basic chatbot. In other words, every unit of "intelligence" enterprises buy is cheaper, but the number of units of "intelligence" needed to complete a real piece of work is expanding at a faster rate.

This structural change has a macroeconomic footnote. The "2026 China AI Computing Power Development Assessment Report" jointly released by IDC and Inspur Information estimates that the number of active agents worldwide will grow from 79.4 million (0.794 billion) in 2026 to 2.216 billion in 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 129.8%; over the same period, global token consumption will grow at a compound annual rate of 4,822.6%, about 37 times the growth rate of the number of agents. Earlier historical benchmarks are equally clear: statistics from Stanford HAI and ArtificialAnalysis both show that inference costs at the GPT-3.5 level have fallen from about $20 per million tokens in November 2022 to $0.07 in October 2024, a decline of about 280 times. The steep drop in the unit price curve combined with the steep rise in the consumption curve forms the complete picture of the "Inference Paradox."

6. Down 26%! India's Q3 smartphone shipments hit a 10-year low for the period

On October 20, market research firm Omdia released its latest industry report showing that India's smartphone market shipments in the third quarter of 2026 are estimated at 35.8 million units, down 26% year-on-year, the lowest third-quarter shipment level since 2016. Even entering the traditional festive sales season, a combination of factors continued to drag on the overall market, and India's smartphone market is undergoing a structural adjustment.

This round of market downturn was driven by multiple factors. Rising retail prices combined with more cautious consumer spending directly suppressed users' willingness to upgrade, and major brands simultaneously tightened inventory and maintained conservative stocking strategies; online channels, which once drove peak-season growth, performed weakly, further adding to market pressure. In addition, the delay of Diwali in 2026 meant that offline festive stocking demand, which in previous years was concentrated in September, was largely pushed back to October, objectively amplifying the year-on-year decline in the third quarter.

In terms of brand rankings, the Indian phone market saw notable changes in the standings this quarter. Samsung returned to the top of India's shipment rankings after more than two years, shipping 6.7 million units in the third quarter. The Galaxy A07, A17 and A27 series contributed the base volume, while the Galaxy S26 series, the new Z series foldables and the S26 FE rounded out the mid-to-high-end product matrix; through a marketing mix of bank cashback, trade-ins and long-term installments, Samsung spurred upgrade demand across different price segments.

vivo ranked second with 6.4 million units shipped, down 34% year-on-year, the steepest decline among the top five brands. Multiple rounds of product price increases disrupted channel inventory rhythms, and insufficient supply of entry-level models weakened its market competitiveness; the Y11 5G and Y21 5G were the main volume drivers, while the returning S series achieved incremental growth driven by the S2.

OPPO ranked third, shipping 4.9 million units, down 24% year-on-year. Product price increases and cautious retailer stocking weighed on volume sales of its core A series; the Reno16 series continued to carry the brand's premiumization goals, stabilizing mid-to-high-end market demand through differentiated imaging selling points and installment offers.

Xiaomi ranked fourth, shipping 4.7 million units, down 28% year-on-year. Rising component costs forced the brand to trade off between pricing and hardware specifications, weakening the cost-effectiveness advantage on which it built its early success. The Redmi 15A and A7 shouldered basic shipment tasks, while the Redmi Note17 series and POCO X8 series filled out the mid-to-high-end product line.

Apple ranked fifth, shipping 3.9 million units. Market expectations of subsequent price increases prompted channels to stock up in advance, and with the standard iPhone 18 absent from the market, the standard iPhone 17 and iPhone 16 continued to sell well. Sales momentum for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launched at the end of the third quarter gradually climbed, with policies such as bank cashback, trade-in subsidies and interest-free installments continuing to drive premium upgrades.

Looking ahead, the industry expects challenges to persist. Omdia forecasts that after a pressured 2026, India's smartphone market will maintain a low single-digit decline in 2027. Rising phone prices and lengthening device replacement cycles have become long-term structural problems, and how to rekindle upgrade demand will be the core question for all vendors.