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East MoneyUpdated Oct 28 15:07

Southern Fund's Zhang Yanmin: AI Does Not Yet Offer Mid-Term Cost-Effectiveness, Three Issues Deserve Attention

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Zhang Yanmin of Southern Fund stated in the third-quarter report that the momentum consensus on AI has receded, and the current convergence is far from sufficient in both time and magnitude; AI does not yet offer mid-term cost-effectiveness. He also believes that AI has not changed the core constraint that innovative drugs ultimately require clinical validation, and that the market may overestimate its short-term financial contribution while underestimating its long-term impact on the way R&D is organized. On overseas expansion, companies that gain share merely by suppressing costs and expanding capacity face multiplied profit risks under trade barriers.

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南方基金张延闽表示,三季度A股经历了幅度较大的调整,行业表现进一步分化:煤炭、石油石化、农林牧渔、银行和医药生物上涨居前,电子、通信、建筑材料等下跌居前。前期涨幅较大、交易拥挤的科技成长板块回撤居前,周期、红利和医药成为少数仍有明显正收益的方向。港股恒生指数和恒生中国企业指数分别上涨约7.57%和8.76%,恒生科技指数下跌约4.88%。

三季报主要探讨三个问题:医药、出海、人工智能。医药方面,AI没有改变创新药最终需要临床验证的核心约束,市场可能高估其短期财务贡献,同时低估其对研发组织方式的长期影响。

出海方面,单纯依靠压低成本和持续扩产能获得份额的企业,面对贸易壁垒时利润风险倍增;拥有技术、品牌、渠道和全球化经营能力的公司,才有可能把竞争优势转化为可持续增长的收入。

人工智能方面,人工智能的动量共识已经退潮,本轮的收敛无论是时间还是幅度都远远不够。展望未来,市场的不确定性加大,挑战持续。

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East Money