Mass production of ten thousand units does not equal profitability: the commercial value of quadruped robots depends on scenario implementation

Quadruped robot products have multiple parallel sales methods depending on the target customer (B-end industry / C-end consumer) and product positioning (industry-customized / general-purpose platform). These are divided into direct product sales, where industry-level products follow "project-based direct sales + integrator embedding" and consumer-level products follow "online + offline distribution"; the solution-selling model, such as integrated hardware and software plus customized development; and also the leasing/RaaS operating model. According to institutional forecasts, China's robot leasing market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2026. At present, there are already more than 150,000 enterprises related to robot leasing.

In 2025, more than 70% of global sales came from Chinese manufacturers, but sales growth does not equate to proven commercialization. The industry already has the hardware capability for "mass production of ten thousand units," but has not yet acquired the commercial capability for "profitable at scale." The industry as a whole exhibits the characteristics of "leading technology, advanced deployment, weak profitability," and there are still structural bottlenecks before large-scale adoption and stable profitability.

At present, users' focus on quadruped robots has shifted from "can it be used" to "is it good to use." The price of consumer-grade quadruped robots has dropped to under 10,000 yuan, but most users still do not know what to do with one after buying it; industrial inspection is the track with the highest commercialization maturity and the largest deployment scale for quadruped robots, but even so, it has still not reached the "ten-thousand-unit-level" regular procurement scale; special-grade scenarios (high-risk industry, emergency rescue, special operations, military) are the scenarios with the highest unit prices and deepest barriers for quadruped robots, and industry demand is shifting toward "environmental adaptability first."

The cost structure of quadruped robots is divided into joint modules, main control and sensors, batteries, mechanical structures, auxiliary structures, and so on. Based on factors such as each company's in-house development of joint modules and motors and differences in procurement prices for some components, the cost composition of quadruped robots produced by each manufacturer varies, and quadruped robots of different levels (consumer-grade, industry-grade) also have different structures, but hardware costs (such as joint modules, main control and sensors, batteries, etc.) always remain an important part of the BOM.

Domestic quadruped robots have already formed a dual-layer supply system of "full-stack in-house development by leading complete-machine manufacturers + Yangtze River Delta cluster supporting facilities." At present, the degree of domestic production in links such as the robot body, motors, electronic control, and structural parts is relatively high, and the overall domestic production rate of core components exceeds 75%; however, there is still room for import substitution in high-precision reducers, encoders, force sensors, and some core chips. Leading enterprises represented by Unitree improve complete-machine performance control capabilities and reduce supply chain dependence through in-house development of joint modules, motion control algorithms, and robot software systems.

Overall, the cost of quadruped robots shows a trend of "continuous decline and obvious differentiation." With the domestic production of core components, large-scale mass production, and technological iteration, the cost of complete machines has dropped significantly, consumer-grade products are approaching mass consumer levels, the cost of industrial-grade products is steadily optimizing, and the full life cycle cost has decreased markedly.

Overall, the selling prices of quadruped robots will show the characteristics of consumer-grade decline (sprinting toward the 5,000–8,000 yuan popularization threshold), structural cost reduction at the industrial grade (doubling performance while costs remain flat), and high-level operation at the special grade. In the next three years, the main battleground for cost reduction will shift from the "supply chain" to "architecture design," with the share of hardware BOM declining and the share of software and algorithms rising.

The certainty of commercialization in special scenarios is the highest. Special quadruped robots are mostly used in scenarios such as petrochemical explosion protection, explosive ordnance disposal, and emergency rescue. They can assist or replace humans in working in high-risk environments and special operating conditions, and have non-universal characteristics. The high risk, high value, and high payment capacity of special scenarios make them the early market with the greatest certainty for commercialization.

Commercialization in special scenarios still faces characteristics such as relatively high costs, high reliability requirements, and insufficient closed-loop scenarios. For example, quadruped robots have completed demonstration applications in the national defense field, but shortcomings such as endurance (semi-solid-state batteries are not yet mature, and ternary lithium batteries still dominate, with system optimization able to improve this by 20%-30%) and slipping on complex terrain are still being gradually improved through hardware upgrades and reinforcement learning algorithms.

Industrial scenario applications open up space for large-scale application of quadruped robots. Industrial scenarios are concentrated in fields such as power inspection, metallurgical smelting, and coal mine exploration, mainly undertaking tasks such as inspection, detection, and data collection, which can greatly reduce the safety risks of manual entry into high-risk areas. Product prices vary greatly due to sensor configurations and mounted equipment, with basic models at about 40,000 yuan and customized solutions reaching 200,000-300,000 yuan. Industrial scenario applications are the core growth market for large-scale commercialization of quadruped robots.

The business model of industrial-grade quadruped robots is shifting from "equipment sales" to "intelligent operation and maintenance services." Its commercialization challenges mainly lie in operating qualifications, endurance and payload, high-end core components still relying on imports, and some products requiring manual participation or preset programs.

Consumer scenarios drive the accelerated popularization of quadruped robots. Consumer-grade quadruped robots are in the early stage of rapid growth, and with the decline in core component costs and the maturation of algorithms, product prices have further declined. Although unit prices are low, the scale effect is the most significant. Consumer-end scenarios are mainly performance and display, science and education training, outdoor camping assistance, and pet companionship and care, with strong user appeal and brand value. The key to future commercialization lies in upgrading from a "tech toy" to an "intelligent robot companion."

In addition, the leasing model in consumer scenarios is also in a period of expansion and explosive growth, and rental market prices will further decline. From the perspective of equipment, among the product types in rental market inventory, quadruped robots account for 40% of total inventory.

Quadruped robots are leaping from a "motion intelligence platform" to an "embodied intelligence terminal." Emerging technologies are nested within, coordinated with, and reinforcing one another, jointly forming a complete technology loop of "perception—transmission—decision—execution—power supply."

This article comes from the WeChat public account "EO Intelligence" (ID: EOintelligence2017), author: EO Intelligence, published by 36Kr with authorization.