AI safety researcher Suarez says there is a greater-than-even chance AI causes human extinction within ten years, and that he has not contributed to retirement savings for ten years
AI alignment researcher Suarez judges that there is a greater-than-even probability that AI will cause human extinction within the next ten years, and says he has not added to his retirement savings for ten years. He believes the risk comes from the possibility that superintelligence may not care about human survival, and that once it can autonomously obtain energy and chips and build automated infrastructure that does not depend on humans, humans will find it difficult to constrain it. He advocates that governments stop training artificial general intelligence systems and shift to specific uses such as cancer research and safer autonomous driving.
Body · AI translation
Suarez has long studied the AI alignment problem—making powerful AI systems behave in accordance with human intent. He previously worked as an engineer at Google and Microsoft, and co-authored "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies." His concern about risk is not that AI will hate humanity, but that superintelligent systems may simply not care whether humans survive; if humans obstruct its goals, or try to shut it down or develop competing systems, humans could come to be seen as obstacles.
In the risk pathway he envisions, the key is not only whether AI can launch an attack, but whether it can become self-sufficient: if a system can autonomously acquire energy, chips, and other resources and build automated infrastructure that no longer depends on humans, humanity's ability to constrain it may decline. Suarez describes it this way: people may not be able to know in advance the specific way superintelligence will cause catastrophe, but they may still be able to judge that they are facing an extremely powerful adversary.
He advocates that governments stop training artificial general intelligence systems and redirect research and development toward specific uses such as cancer research and safer autonomous driving, and says catastrophe is not inevitable and that he is still doing his utmost to prevent such an outcome. The solution he emphasizes is not to build systems that could kill everyone.
Suarez's judgment is a personal risk assessment, not a proven scientific prediction, nor does it represent a unified consensus among AI researchers. His statement that he stopped adding to his retirement savings reflects his view of future risk and should not be understood as advice on others' financial decisions.