Weekly data highlights: Q3 China smartphone shipments fell 15.2%, Japan chip equipment sales in September exceeded 60 billion yen for the first time

1. Q3 China smartphone market shipments fell 15.2%, Huawei grew against the trend

2. Japan chip equipment September sales top 600 billion yen for the first time, setting a new monthly record

3. TrendForce: 2027 Server CPU shipments estimated to grow over 40% year-on-year

4. Institution: Global smartphone shipments expected to fall 12% in 2026

5. Apple iPhone Duo in high demand; IDC optimistic it will dominate the foldable market

6. Gartner: 44% of CEOs can't figure out the AI math, but 75% are still increasing technology investment

1. Q3 China smartphone market shipments fell 15.2%, Huawei grew against the trend

On October 27, International Data Corporation (IDC) pointed out in a report that in the third quarter of 2026, China's smartphone market shipments were approximately 58.06 million units, down 15.2% year-on-year. Compared with the year-on-year decline of about 4% in the first half, the overall market size shrank at a faster pace in the second half. Rising terminal prices and adjustments to product configuration plans caused by sharp increases in the cost of memory and other components have begun to significantly suppress consumer demand, with Android manufacturers and long-tail brands under particularly prominent pressure.

From the perspective of manufacturer performance, against the backdrop of overall weakness, Huawei, relying on diversified product forms and relatively restrained price increases, continued its strong performance since the beginning of the year, achieving double-digit year-on-year shipment growth.

After Apple's new products were launched, market popularity exceeded expectations, but due to a reduced number of models this year, shipments declined slightly year-on-year. Although other leading Chinese brands faced major challenges, they still demonstrated their respective capacity to withstand pressure.

OPPO remained firmly among the top three in market shipments for four consecutive quarters. In the high-end market above US$600, the Find X10 topped the sales rankings for standard versions of this year's new flagship products, helping OPPO achieve triple-digit year-on-year growth in shipments in this price segment for three consecutive quarters. In the US$400-600 mid-to-high-end market, the Reno 16 series, with balanced product strength and deep channel development, remained firmly first in Android single-model sales in this price segment, forming the core support for OPPO's sales base.

vivo continued to maintain stable market performance with solid product competitiveness, ranking third with a 15.3% market share. After iterations across multiple generations of products and continuous deep cultivation of the mobile imaging track, vivo has established solid user reputation and market recognition, and the all-new flagship X500 series further consolidated its market position in high-end imaging flagships. After Xiaomi returned to the foldable screen market, the Xiaomi 18 Fold, the first wide foldable product from a domestic Android brand, quickly opened up the market with its differentiated form and product strength, helping Xiaomi return to third place in the foldable screen market. In addition, Honor became the only brand among the leading mainstream manufacturers to achieve positive quarter-on-quarter shipment growth this quarter, with a clear rebound trend.

Looking ahead, IDC expects memory and other material costs to remain high in the coming quarters, and mobile phone product prices will continue to trend upward. Most consumers still need time to accept and adapt to price increases, and replacement cycles may further lengthen. Therefore, even with a large number of new products across all tiers being launched in a concentrated manner, China's smartphone market is expected to still struggle to improve in the fourth quarter of 2026. Even for most of 2027, cost pressure will remain, and the market is expected to continue its marked downward trend.

2. Japan chip equipment September sales top 600 billion yen for the first time, setting a new monthly record

Statistics released by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) show that in September 2026, sales of Japan-made chip equipment (three-month moving average, including exports) were 629.040 billion yen, up 48.2% from the same period last year, maintaining growth for the ninth consecutive month and recording double-digit growth for the seventh consecutive month. This year-on-year increase was the largest in nearly 55 months since February 2022 (when it grew 56.8% year-on-year).

In September, monthly sales of Japan chip equipment exceeded the 600 billion yen mark for the first time in history, surpassing the 597.915 billion yen of August 2026 and setting a new monthly historical record since statistics began in 1986. Compared with August 2026, September sales grew 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, achieving quarter-on-quarter growth for the third consecutive month.

Cumulatively from January to September 2026, Japan chip equipment sales reached 4,664.085 billion yen, up 22.7% from the same period last year, surpassing the 3,800.475 billion yen of the same period in 2025 and setting a new high for the same period in previous years. By sales value, Japan chip equipment accounts for about 30% of the global market, second only to the United States and ranking second worldwide.

Japanese wafer dicing machine manufacturer DISCO's financial report released on October 22 shows that from July to September 2026, its shipment value (which can reflect customers' willingness to invest) grew 54.3% year-on-year to 148.6 billion yen, setting a historical high for the fourth consecutive quarter. DISCO expects shipment value to grow 31.7% to 149.6 billion yen from October to December 2026, setting another historical high.

According to a Jiji Press report on October 21, Canon plans to increase production of lithography equipment for semiconductor manufacturing in 2027 to as much as twice the 2026 level. As the spread of AI drives a surge in semiconductor demand, Canon will further expand lithography equipment capacity to meet the expansion investment needs of semiconductor manufacturers in Japan and abroad.

SEAJ's preliminary report released on July 2 shows that, due to strong investment in advanced logic chips for AI servers and a substantial increase in DRAM investment centered on HBM, the forecast for Japan-made chip equipment sales in fiscal 2026 (April 2026 to March 2027) (referring to the equipment sales of Japanese companies in Japan and overseas) has been sharply revised upward by about 20% (an upward revision of 1,049.8 billion yen) from the 5,500.4 billion yen projected in January 2026 to 6,550.2 billion yen, up 26.0% from fiscal 2025, with annual sales set to exceed the 6 trillion yen mark for the first time and hit a record high for the third consecutive year.

3. TrendForce: Server CPU shipments projected to grow over 40% year-on-year in 2027

TrendForce points out that, with the rise of AI Agent services, the share of AI inference workloads in cloud data center servers is expected to increase day by day, gradually changing the ratio of CPU to GPU/ASIC inside servers. Judging from manufacturers' planned server rack solutions and growth trends, this will develop from the past 1:8 toward 1:2 or even 1:1, adding momentum to server CPU shipments.

Analyzing the competitive landscape, in 2025 the x86 camp led by Intel and AMD will dominate nearly 90% of the market, and AMD's share has already increased, while the market share of Arm-based architecture products has only just exceeded 10%. In 2026, both x86 and Arm-based CPUs will actively ship to capture AI inference opportunities. However, Intel's new products have encountered process and packaging challenges, and their shipment schedules have been delayed; they are being supported by the existing Emerald Rapids and Granite Rapids product lines, but are still constrained by tight capacity at its own fabs, compressing overall shipment growth, failing to meet order demand, and causing its market share to decline.

AMD's new product Venice entered small-scale mass production in 2026, and its main shipping products are likewise the existing Genoa and Turin platforms. Although additional orders are limited because TSMC's capacity is tight, AMD's server CPU market share is estimated to grow significantly to around 27% this year.

As for Arm-based CPUs, in addition to AWS continuing to adopt its self-developed Graviton CPU, demand for NVIDIA Grace CPU also continues to expand; Google's self-developed Axion CPU has entered the stage of mass shipment, and Microsoft Cobalt 100 as well as Arm's self-developed AGI have also entered the stage of mass production and shipment. This has enabled Arm-Based CPU shipments to grow better than x86 products in 2026, with their CPU market share exceeding 20%.

TrendForce expects that the Arm-Based CPU market share is expected to expand to 30% in 2027, with the momentum mainly coming from a significant expansion in shipments of NVIDIA Vera CPU, as well as new CPUs from Google, AWS, Microsoft, OpenAI, Arm, Huawei and others entering the stage of mass production, and driven by Alibaba's launch of new CPUs such as Yitian 720/730. As for the x86 camp, Intel's new products are estimated to remain in the stage of small-volume release, while AMD's shipment situation will be more steady; coupled with the expected launch of new products in the first half of 2027, its market share will continue to rise.

4. Institution: Global smartphone shipments expected to fall 12% in 2026

On October 29, data released by Omdia set a heavy tone for the global smartphone market in the third quarter of 2026: shipments fell 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units, the lowest level for the same period since 2013. What has alerted the industry even more is that this is not an isolated quarterly fluctuation. Omdia expects full-year shipments in 2026 to decline 12%, while the market will continue to shrink in 2027; although the rate of decline is expected to narrow, cost pressure will persist throughout. The root of this cold winter lies not on the demand side but deep in the supply chain. The squeeze on memory chip capacity triggered by the AI computing boom is fundamentally rewriting the cost structure and competitive logic of the phone industry.

Against the backdrop of an overall market contraction of 20%, the performance of leading manufacturers shows a clear logical divide.

Samsung held first place firmly with a 23% share, with shipments down only 3% year-on-year, making it the major manufacturer with the largest share gain. Samsung's strategy is not to pursue shipment volume figures but to focus on higher average selling prices and revenue growth. The Galaxy Z Fold8 series saw strong initial demand, while the mid-range A series took over in emerging markets some of the space left by the contraction of Chinese brands. In short, Samsung used foldables to defend its high-end premium and the A series to stabilize its base, achieving value growth while shipments edged down.

Apple's path is slightly different, but the logic is the same. In the third quarter, the iPhone's global share rose to 22%, the first time in Apple's history that it exceeded 20% in a third quarter. Shipments themselves still declined, mainly because only the iPhone 18 Pro series was launched this year, with no base model, so the scale of new product distribution was below last year's level when the full lineup was launched. However, the Pro series had a stronger debut than its predecessor, especially in China and India, and relatively resilient high-end demand helped Apple expand its share against the trend. In the market above $800, Apple's dominance remains its thickest safety cushion.

In contrast to Samsung and Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo saw their shares contract. But on closer inspection, each company's situation is different.

Xiaomi's third-quarter shipments plunged more than 30% year on year, with its share falling from 14% to 10%. Counterpoint attributed this performance to Xiaomi's deliberate strategic adjustment: to avoid shipping at thin margins or even at a loss, Xiaomi cut investment in low-priced models, exited some non-core overseas markets, and at the same time raised average selling prices and tightened shipment plans. This is a trade-off of short-term share for financial health. Notably, Xiaomi's push into China's mid-to-high-end market is still advancing; the Xiaomi 18 series and foldable models have received positive feedback, and its in-house chips are also giving it differentiated leverage for premiumization.

OPPO's situation is more complex. Its global shipments fell about 39% year on year in the third quarter, and its share narrowed to 9%. In the domestic market, its high-end growth in the first half was impressive, but globally the contraction in overseas markets far exceeded that in China. vivo is also under pressure, with its share falling to 8%. For Chinese brands whose core strategy is volume sales in the low-to-mid-end segment, memory costs now account for nearly 30% of a thousand-yuan phone, completely eroding the profit margins of some models. Contraction, at present, is more a passive defense.

5. Apple's iPhone Duo in hot demand; IDC expects it to dominate the foldable phone market

Apple's first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, went on sale on October 23. Even with a base price of more than $2,000, it still drew users to line up at physical stores, and online pre-orders are already scheduled through the end of January next year. Although the phone faces challenges such as tight supply and app support, research firm IDC still expects Apple to overtake Samsung Electronics and Huawei next year to become the leader in foldable phones.

Taiwan's three major telecom operators had already prepared for the launch, and most iPhone Duo units had been allocated, but telecom stores across Taiwan were closed yesterday for a typhoon day, so Apple fans could see the phone but not get it, setting a record of zero sales on launch day. Telecom operators said that users who have completed reservations only need to go to their original store to complete the follow-up procedures once stores resume normal operations, and they expect applications for high-rate plans of NT$1,399 or more to account for the largest share.

U.S. warehouse store Costco began selling the iPhone Duo in Taiwan yesterday, and it sold out in just five minutes, becoming a hot topic in the market. With Costco's pricing combined with the Black Diamond card discount, customers can save up to NT$5,445. Members on site reported that some consumers lined up the night before, and the iPhone Duo sold out just five minutes after going on sale; even with a typhoon approaching, the buying frenzy showed no sign of cooling.

IDC Vice President Jeronimo believes that foldable phones have been on the market for years, yet their penetration is far below that of ordinary smartphones, and Apple's entry is expected to attract more consumers. IDC forecasts that Apple will account for 44% of sales value and 31% of shipments in the foldable phone market this year, and next year it is expected to rank first in both sales value and shipments.

6. Gartner: 44% of CEOs cannot figure out the AI math, but 75% are still increasing technology investment

On October 26, the latest survey by business and technology insights company Gartner showed that 44% of CEOs find it difficult to prove to stakeholders the financial returns brought by AI, but 75% of respondents still plan to increase technology investment. The survey covered 203 CEOs and corporate executives worldwide, with 62% listing revenue and business growth as one of their top strategic priorities.

The survey noted that 80% of CEOs believe technology itself has become corporate strategy, and technology decisions have entered the core of discussions on growth and competitiveness. At the same time, 93% of respondents expect economic volatility to have a high or moderate impact on corporate strategic goals by 2027, 79% expect ongoing conflicts to have the same impact, and 77% expect the industrialization of AI to do so as well; however, the corresponding readiness levels are only 24%, 11%, and 20%, respectively.

On the path to unlocking AI returns, 63% of CEOs believe that fundamentally redesigning operating models by 2027 will be a powerful measure to accelerate the realization of AI financial returns, 52% believe AI agents should be actively deployed as employees, and 47% believe capital should be unlocked or reallocated through major business restructuring. Gartner recommends that CIOs restructure workflows around intelligence, build modular architectures to preserve strategic freedom, and measure progress by financial and operational outcomes rather than by AI activity itself.