Anthropic IPO valuation expectations lowered, market worries AI stock selloff could affect listing

According to foreign media reports, on the prediction market Kalshi, traders believe the probability that Anthropic completes an IPO within the year has dropped from nearly 90% before the U.S. midterm elections to less than 60%. Some potential investors even doubt whether Anthropic can reach the expected valuation of 1.5 trillion.

Misfortunes never come singly: a series of personnel changes have occurred within Anthropic. Claude Code lost three important members within two weeks, with former product lead Cat Wu and its first growth hire Austin Lau successively joining competitor OpenAI.

As the tech stock market deteriorates, doubts surrounding this trillion-dollar IPO are growing.

On November 5, U.S. stocks plunged across the board. The Dow fell 1,833 points, or 3.44%; the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, its largest single-day drop since the U.S. tariff shock in April 2025; the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its largest single-day drop in 19 months.

The AI supply chain became the hardest-hit area of the selloff. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged about 12.3% in a single day, its largest single-day drop since March 2020. Nvidia fell about 9%, and AMD fell about 17%. CoreWeave fell about 10%, and Nebius fell about 15%, with both companies' share prices halving from their October 6 highs. Microsoft fell 3.6%, while Amazon and Alphabet each fell 2.2%.

Note: Data on individual stock gains and losses vary across different market platforms; the figures in the image may differ slightly from the data cited in the text.

The color of the stock market formed a sharp contrast with the ballots. One of the main triggers for this selloff was market concern that the new U.S. Congress and local governments may restrict AI data center construction—the massive electricity and water consumption of data centers and their impact on local infrastructure have become an important issue in U.S. local politics.

UBS estimates that about 30% of the data center capacity originally scheduled to be added in the U.S. by 2028 could be affected by potential construction moratorium measures.

Amid this selloff, the IPO Anthropic is preparing has become an important window for observing the AI market.

Anthropic is both a purchaser of massive computing power and a model developer that sells AI services directly to enterprises and consumers. Investors' concern about whether massive AI investment can be converted into sustained revenue and profit ultimately needs to be answered by the operating performance of such companies.

The sharp volatility in the stock market has also increased the difficulty of pricing this deal. Institutional investors will refer to the valuations, earnings expectations and market risks of existing tech stocks to decide at what price they are willing to subscribe to new shares. When AI-related stocks generally fall, even if they remain optimistic about Anthropic's long-term prospects, they may demand a lower issue price or reduce their subscription amounts.

Anthropic was previously expected to raise up to 100 billion. Such a massive offering scale requires attracting enough institutional investors; if subscription demand is insufficient, the company may need to lower its valuation, reduce the fundraising scale, or wait for the market to stabilize before listing.

On November 5, according to foreign media reports, some potential investors have questioned whether Anthropic can launch its roadshow in the week of November 9 and complete its listing within November. Some investors believe that the previously discussed valuation of about 1.5 trillion is still too high and hope for a larger valuation discount. Anthropic declined to comment.

This deal, which was originally expected to set a global IPO fundraising record, is now facing dual pressures: institutional investors are continuously lowering valuation expectations, and the previously expected listing timetable is also beginning to be questioned.

However, it should be noted that Anthropic has not yet announced an official issue price or listing date. In its prospectus, the company only stated that it "plans to conduct a public offering as soon as practicable after the SEC registration statement becomes effective"; the previous November listing arrangement mainly came from sources familiar with the matter.

In fact, valuation pressure on Anthropic has always existed. The 2 trillion valuation expectation was fleeting only in September this year, and the attitude of the capital market seems to have cooled along with the temperature.

On October 14, Anthropic held an investor day and disclosed third-quarter financial data to potential investors. The company's revenue grew about 45% quarter over quarter to 168 billion, still maintaining rapid growth, but significantly slower than the approximately 145% quarter-over-quarter growth in the second quarter. The next day, media reports said that some investors had begun to cut Anthropic's IPO valuation expectation from the previous approximately 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion.

A 500 billion valuation expectation thus evaporated before the official listing. Some media commentary even argued that Anthropic may have already missed the best window for listing—if the company could have listed in June, entering the public market when revenue growth momentum was strongest, it might have obtained a more ideal valuation.

On November 2, Anthropic updated its prospectus to supplement third-quarter results: quarterly revenue of 169.56 billion, up about 47% quarter over quarter, with long-term computing power procurement and leasing commitments as high as 895.4 billion. Reports on the same day said that institutional investors preparing to participate in the IPO hoped to keep the valuation between 1.5 trillion and 1.6 trillion.

Now, even this discounted price is beginning to be questioned.

According to foreign media reports, as the tech stock market deteriorates, some potential investors are discussing a valuation range of 1.2 trillion to 1.3 trillion, and some are even considering pushing the valuation down to 1.1 trillion.

Other reports say some investors are waiting for Anthropic's October revenue data to judge whether the company's revenue growth can rebound after slowing in the third quarter. This data has not yet been separately disclosed in the prospectus updated on November 2.

Meanwhile, Anthropic is also facing a talent battle with competitors.

On November 3, US time, former Claude Code product lead Cat Wu announced her departure, ending about two years at Anthropic. She was involved in Claude Code's evolution from an internal experimental tool into a commercial product and was one of the product's most representative members. Just two days later, Cat Wu announced she was joining OpenAI, responsible for product management of core products and reporting to Tibo Sottiaux.

Anthropic's first growth marketing employee, Austin Lau, also announced on the same day that he was joining OpenAI. He had previously helped build Claude's user growth system and was responsible for attracting more users to the product. In January this year, Anthropic had specifically highlighted how he used Claude Code to develop marketing tools, cutting ad creative production time from 30 minutes to 30 seconds.

At a critical time when Anthropic and OpenAI are competing for the enterprise market, the two people switching to OpenAI happen to be the two who once helped Anthropic win users. One drove Claude Code toward commercialization, and the other was responsible for getting more people to discover and use Claude. Now, both have joined the camp of their former competitor.

Interestingly, Anthropic had just emphasized its talent advantage in its prospectus. The company said that in the 12 months ended September 30, its overall "regretted attrition rate" was only about 1%. However, this statistic does not yet include departures of core personnel since late October.

Regarding the reasons for leaving, the individuals did not give explanations directly related to IPO prospects. Cat Wu also explicitly stated that whether she could sell company shares early was not a factor in her departure.

Anthropic's IPO valuation has been repeatedly cut, and OpenAI is finding it hard to stay unaffected.

On October 19, according to foreign media reports, OpenAI was accelerating efforts to raise about 30 billion, hoping to lock in investor funds before Anthropic's listing, with a target valuation of more than 1.4 trillion. However, by October 30, OpenAI's fundraising target had dropped to about 20 billion, and its target valuation had also been lowered to 1.25 trillion. On November 6, OpenAI was reported to have completed the first batch of about 11 billion in financing, with the remaining funds still being raised.

OpenAI is rushing to raise money ahead of Anthropic, while Anthropic hopes to use its IPO to set a fundraising record. Now, both companies have encountered market price pressure. They are competing for the same group of investors and also face similar financing headwinds.

As of October 22, data center operator Switch, AI infrastructure company Nscale, and SoftBank-backed SB Energy had all postponed their IPOs, while Nvidia-backed Firmus and Blackstone-backed AirTrunk REIT withdrew or suspended their offering plans. According to reports, some companies at the time were even unwilling to compete with Anthropic for institutional investors' funds and attention. Many large investors remain optimistic about Anthropic, viewing it as one of the few opportunities to invest directly in a frontier AI company.

Just two weeks later, Anthropic's offering arrangements also came under question.

Compared with listed chipmakers and cloud computing giants, OpenAI and Anthropic, which directly develop frontier models, still lack public-market valuation benchmarks. Anthropic had been expected to become the first frontier AI model company to list on US stocks, so the outcome of its offering is naturally closely watched.

If it lists smoothly, even at a lower valuation than previously expected, the capital market will finally have a chance to directly price this type of company. Investors will be able to judge how high a valuation a frontier AI company is truly worth based on Anthropic's revenue growth, profitability, and computing costs. This will provide an important comparison point for OpenAI and other unlisted AI companies.

It is worth noting that an IPO delay will not immediately plunge Anthropic into a funding predicament. According to the latest prospectus, as of September 30, the company still held about 131.9 billion in cash and short-term investments, giving it a considerable funding buffer.

But if the IPO cannot move forward for a long time and other financing channels also begin to tighten, the situation will become much more difficult.

Anthropic has already signed long-term computing procurement and leasing commitments of nearly 900 billion, of which about 69.8 billion is expected to come due before the end of September 2027. Once financing costs continue to rise and new funds are difficult to secure, the company may have to slow its expansion and may even need to readjust some investment plans. Data centers, chip suppliers, and financial institutions that rely on its future orders could also be affected.

For Anthropic, missing one listing window may mean it can wait for the next one. But if the capital market's valuation logic for the entire AI industry changes, the next opportunity may not necessarily be better than now.