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In an analysis published on Huxiu on October 10, 2026, Skye proposed that the most likely endgame of the AI capital game is that some node is the first to run into trouble, which then cascades through cross-shareholding chains. The article reviewed the financial reports of the five major U.S. tech giants, stating that more than 85% of Alphabet's and Amazon's quarterly profits come from unrealized gains on equity investments, and that their combined off-balance-sheet long-term purchase and lease commitments total about $1.65 trillion, already exceeding on-balance-sheet liabilities; capital expenditure by the five giants is projected at $769.2 billion in 2026, while annual revenue from AI applications is about $200 billion, leaving a gap of roughly 5 times. The article also compared Chinese and U.S. pricing, noting that OpenAI charges $30 per million tokens while DeepSeek charges only $0.18, a price difference of 166 times. At present, there are no subsequent factual developments regarding this judgment.
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Oct 10
Huxiu
$1.65 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments and a 166-Fold Token Price Gap: Three Endgame Scenarios for the AI Capital Game
The author reviewed the financial reports of the five major U.S. tech giants and found that more than 85% of Alphabet's and Amazon's quarterly profits come from unrealized gains on equity investments; their combined off-balance-sheet long-term purchase and lease commitments total approximately $1.65 trillion, already exceeding on-balance-sheet liabilities. Capital expenditure by the five giants is projected at $769.2 billion in 2026, while annual AI application revenue is about $200 billion, leaving a gap of roughly 5 times. After comparing China-U.S. pricing, the author notes that OpenAI charges $30 per million output Tokens while DeepSeek charges only $0.18, a price gap of 166 times, and concludes that the most likely endgame is that one node runs into trouble first and the problem then propagates through the chain of cross-shareholdings.