Understand this story
On October 22, 2026, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research released a report estimating AI's impact on the labor market using lessons from historical technological shocks. The report states that if AI ultimately delivers a 15% productivity gain, up to about 9% of workers could temporarily leave their current jobs during the transition period; in occupations where technology renders labor roles redundant, employment fell by an average of about 25% over five years, with photo lab technicians seeing a nearly 60% decline in positions over five years. The report also found that each 1% of technology-driven productivity gain temporarily raises the peak unemployment rate by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and that job contraction stems more from a rise in separation rates than from a slowdown in hiring. Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimates in the report that up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the transition, with another 3% of employment weighed down by slower hiring; he notes that historically automation shocks have tended to accelerate during economic slowdowns, and that the impact is still small for now, with only 23% of U.S. institutions having incorporated AI into routine workflows.
AI-generated from public reports
Developments
1 confirmed developments
Goldman Sachs releases report quantifying AI's impact on employment
Source:Wallstreetcn
Reports and discussion timeline
Browse reports and discussion by time. Their evidence levels remain distinct.
Oct 23
Wallstreetcn
Goldman Sachs quantifies AI's speed of impact on employment: affected occupations see average job losses of about 25% over five years
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research published a report on October 22, using historical technology shock experience to estimate AI's impact on the labor market: if AI ultimately brings a 15% productivity gain, during the transition period up to about 9% of employees may temporarily leave their current jobs; in occupations where technology makes labor roles redundant, employment falls by an average of about 25% over five years, with photo lab technicians seeing job losses of nearly 60% over five years. The report also finds that each 1% of technology-driven productivity gain temporarily raises the peak unemployment rate by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and that job contraction comes more from a rising separation rate than from slower hiring, so AI-related layoff announcements are better suited as a high-frequency indicator to watch.
Fortune AI
Goldman Sachs: AI May Replace One in Nine Jobs, but Layoffs Will Only Cluster During Recessions
Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs estimates in a report that if AI ultimately raises productivity in the United States and other developed economies by 15%, up to 9% of workers could be displaced during the AI transition, with another 3% of employment affected by slower hiring, totaling about 1 in every 11 people. He points out that historically, the labor impact of automation has been limited when the economy is healthy and tends to accelerate during economic slowdowns, so AI-related layoffs may amplify the business cycle. Briggs says the impact is still small for now, with only 23% of U.S. organizations having incorporated AI into routine workflows.