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IDC predicts that, affected by U.S. trade restrictions, by 2030 U.S. market humanoid robot revenue will be 58% lower than the pre-restriction baseline, with losses exceeding $6 billion, and the industry's annual growth rate dropping from 13% to about 9%. The relevant background is that on July 28 the FCC added foreign-produced advanced robotic devices to the Covered List; new models cannot obtain import sales authorization, already authorized models can still be sold, and some software and firmware updates are permitted until January 1, 2029. IDC data also shows that in the first half of 2026 global humanoid robot shipments were about 25,000 units, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for about 95%. Currently this forecast is reported by a single source, and there is no further independent evidence.
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Source:Fortune Tech
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Oct 23
Fortune Tech
IDC: US restrictions on foreign robots may reduce humanoid robot revenue by 58%
IDC estimates that, affected by US trade restrictions, by 2030 humanoid robot revenue in the US market will be 58% lower than the pre-restriction baseline, with losses exceeding US$6 billion, and the industry's annual growth rate dropping from 13% to about 9%. On July 28, the FCC added foreign-produced advanced robotic devices to the Covered List; new models cannot obtain import sales authorization, already authorized models can still be sold, and some software and firmware updates are permitted until January 1, 2029. IDC data shows that in the first half of 2026, global humanoid robot shipments were about 25,000 units, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for about 95%.