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Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark proposed that, under certain conditions, AI could drive US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030. A report on October 18, 2026 stated that Clark, citing the company's internal model forecasts, said AI could boost US economic output by nearly 50%, bringing the potential scale of US GDP to $44 trillion; he also warned that growing evidence points to a "technological singularity," that AI development will outpace human control, and that the window to build safety safeguards is only "a few short years." A report on October 23 further stated that Clark, during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, cited internal model projections in which Anthropic's economic research set out three scenarios: a moderate scenario of $34.1 trillion, a significant scenario of $36.3 trillion, and a most aggressive scenario of $44.4 trillion, with the extreme scenario representing an increase of about 32.4% relative to a baseline without AI acceleration. The report noted that these results are not deterministic forecasts, and whether they materialize depends on technological progress, the pace of corporate adoption, and the actual effects of productivity gains.
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US steps up AI investment, why is the capital market dividedDevelopments
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Anthropic co-founder proposes AI may drive US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030
Source:Cailian Press
Reports and discussion timeline
Browse reports and discussion by time. Their evidence levels remain distinct.
Oct 24
Shanghai Observer
US steps up AI investment, why is the capital market divided
US AI investment continues to ramp up, with five hyperscale cloud providers expected to spend nearly $800 billion in capex this year, yet the capital market is showing both bullish sentiment and bubble concerns. BlackRock still lists AI as one of its most favored investment themes, while Dalio calls the AI boom a "classic bubble"; a Bank of America October survey shows nearly half of surveyed fund managers expect a bubble next year. CBRE data shows that in the first half of this year, major North American data center supply grew 33.7% year over year, with a vacancy rate of only 1.4%, and 80.4% of capacity under construction has already secured pre-lease commitments.
Oct 23
Jiwei.com
Anthropic model projection: AI may drive US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, cited internal model projections saying that under specific assumptions AI may drive US GDP to reach $44 trillion by 2030, nearly 50% higher than the current scale of slightly above $30 trillion. Anthropic's economic research sets three scenarios: a moderate scenario of $34.1 trillion, a significant scenario of $36.3 trillion, and the most aggressive scenario of $44.4 trillion, with the extreme scenario raising about 32.4% relative to a baseline without AI acceleration. These results are not deterministic forecasts; whether they materialize depends on technological progress, the pace of enterprise adoption, and the actual effects of productivity gains.
Oct 18
Cailian Press
Anthropic co-founder: AI could boost US GDP by nearly 50%, but may exceed human control
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said the company's internal models predict that, under certain conditions, AI could boost US economic output by nearly 50% by 2030, with potential US GDP reaching $44 trillion. He also warned that growing evidence points to a "technological singularity," that AI development will outpace human control, and that the window to build safety safeguards is only "a few short years."