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On October 22, 2026, Nomura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa warned that the current credit turmoil at U.S. technology companies and in France is highly similar to the "second-round shock" seen before the collapse of the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2008 Lehman crisis. His report noted that historically, such shocks have tended to evolve into a "third-round shock" that triggers a recession about one to two years later. The report also mentioned that the U.S. and European central banks are continuing to raise interest rates due to rising oil prices, with markets pricing in close to 100% probability of a December rate hike in the U.S. and Europe and close to 80% in Japan; if oil prices are rising due to economic overheating rather than geopolitics, central banks' policy room will be squeezed, making a credit crisis difficult to avoid. Currently, this warning has been reported by a single source, and there are no subsequent factual developments.
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Oct 22
Wallstreetcn
Nomura warns: current AI credit risk closely resembles the internet bubble and pre-Lehman crisis, oil prices become the key variable
Nomura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa warns that the current credit turmoil at U.S. tech companies and in France closely resembles the "second wave of shocks" before the collapse of the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 Lehman crisis; historically, such shocks have often evolved within about one to two years into a "third wave of shocks" that triggers a recession. The report notes that U.S. and European central banks are continuing to raise rates due to rising oil prices, with markets pricing in close to 100% probability of a December rate hike in the U.S. and Europe and close to 80% in Japan; if oil prices rise due to economic overheating rather than geopolitics, central banks' policy room will be squeezed, making a credit crisis hard to avoid.