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Developments
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- Source:Wallstreetcn
Reports and discussion timeline
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Oct 26
Wall Street CN
AI Trade Faces a Critical Week: Microsoft, Amazon, and Google Earnings to Test Returns on Capital Expenditure
Wall Street CN reported that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle will report earnings in succession this week, with the market focused on the pace at which backlog orders convert into revenue, the speed of computing power deployment, and whether future capital expenditure plans are maintained. The article cites advice from the team of Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, stating that investors should remain tactically risk-averse until mid-November, and warns that if the credit spreads on bonds of hyperscale tech companies break through 200 basis points, it could force investors to further cut risk exposure. The article also notes that the S&P 500 equal-weight index's outperformance relative to the market-cap-weighted index this month is the sixth largest since 1990, and that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) valuation has fallen back to about 17 times forward earnings.
Oct 25
Wallstreetcn
BofA's Hartnett: Tactical risk-off until mid-November; near-term direction hinges on three conditions
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett advises investors to remain tactically cautious until mid-November, maintaining his call for "lower bond yields, lower stocks, lower dollar," and expects the dollar index to fall below 100 and the 30-year Treasury yield to move toward 5%. The near-term direction depends on whether there is a turning point in the policy risks from the U.S. midterm elections, French government bond selling pressure (the France-Germany 10-year spread has risen to 180 basis points), and AI capital expenditure and financing risks. This week, global equity funds saw inflows of $55.6 billion, with tech funds taking in $18.8 billion, the highest since July, but BofA's Bull & Bear indicator fell from 7.4 to 7.2.