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Fireworks AI announced that Muse Glimmer 30B is available for free SFT training until November 30, and it has published a complete recipe for prediction experiments using historical Kalshi market data. According to the results it published, the fine-tuned Glimmer achieved 58.3% prediction accuracy on unseen topics, 11.2 percentage points higher than Jev's 47.1%; in a historical backtest, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,071 after simulated fees, while base Glimmer and Jev both lost money. Training used LoRA adapters and a K-way cross-entropy loss, ran through the training data only once, and separately used a calibration set to fit a temperature parameter for each question category. The same release also mentioned that in another synthetic benchmark, Fireworks' System One serving stack had a median server processing speed 2-3 times faster than standard BF16 chat completions. The free training window currently runs until November 30.
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Fireworks Offers Free Training of Muse Glimmer 30B: Using SFT to Predict Kalshi Market OutcomesDevelopments
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Oct 20
Fireworks AIFirst-party
Fireworks Offers Free Training of Muse Glimmer 30B: Using SFT to Predict Kalshi Market Outcomes
Fireworks AI announced that Muse Glimmer 30B can be trained with SFT for free until November 30, and released a complete recipe for a prediction experiment using historical Kalshi market data. The fine-tuned Glimmer achieved 58.3% accuracy on unseen topics, 11.2 percentage points higher than Jev's 47.1%; in a historical backtest, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,071 after accounting for simulated fees, while both base Glimmer and Jev lost money. Training used LoRA adapters and a K-way cross-entropy loss, ran through the training data only once, and separately used a calibration set to fit a temperature parameter for each question category.
Fireworks AIFirst-party
Fireworks Free Weights Club: Training Muse Glimmer to Beat Jev on Predictions
Fireworks AI launches the Free Weights Club, offering free SFT training for Muse Glimmer 30B until November 30. The fine-tuned tuned Glimmer achieves 58.3% prediction accuracy on unseen topics, 11.2 percentage points higher than Jev's 47.1%; in a historical backtest, after deducting simulated trading fees, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,071, while both Jev and base Glimmer posted losses. In a separate synthetic benchmark, Fireworks' System One serving stack delivered median server throughput 2-3x faster than standard BF16 chat completions.