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On November 3, 2026, Yicai published an article by Xue Hong, arguing that the pullback in the AI computing power market stems from a switch in the market's pricing logic. The article takes the STAR 50 as its observation subject: the index fell from 2,208 points at the end of June to 1,161 points at the end of October, a drawdown of about 47% over four months; Cambricon's revenue for the first three quarters was 9.526 billion yuan, up 106.76% year on year, yet its share price still fell 36.8% in the third quarter. Xue Hong argues that the industry logic has not changed; what has changed is that the market has shifted from the income statement to the cash flow statement, from growth rates to duration, with capital expenditure turning from orders on the numerator side into liabilities on the denominator side. He suggests first looking at who ultimately pays and how far this "correctness" has already been priced in, then looking at whether the account's time horizon can wait for it to materialize. At present, there are no subsequent factual developments regarding this judgment.
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From Missing Out on AI to AI Overweight: The Pricing Lesson of STAR 50's 47% Drawdown in Four MonthsDevelopments
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Nov 3
Yicai
From Missing Out on AI to AI Overweight: The Pricing Lesson of STAR 50's 47% Drawdown in Four Months
The STAR 50 fell from 2208 points at the end of June to 1161 points at the end of October, a drawdown of about 47% in four months, while Cambricon's revenue for the first three quarters was 9.526 billion yuan, up 106.76% year-on-year, yet its stock price still fell 36.8% in the third quarter. The author Xue Hong believes the industry logic has not changed; what has changed is that the market has shifted from the income statement to the cash flow statement, from growth rate to duration, and capital expenditure has turned from orders on the numerator side into liabilities on the denominator side. He suggests first looking at who ultimately pays and how far this "right" has already been priced in, and then looking at whether the account's time horizon can wait for it to be realized.